New devices will shrink Microsoft’s OS market share, researcher predicts.Microsoft’s domination of the client operating systems market will fade over the next few years, according to Avneesh Saxena, vice-president for Asia-Pacific computing systems research at IDC.
Microsoft currently has around 90 percent share of the client operating system market with Windows but this will fall to 58 percent by 2007 as new devices increasingly appear, Saxena said at the IDC Directions conference in Singapore this week.
“Operating systems are not going away and we’re not going to one single platform,” he says. “Different workloads require different operating systems and the range of new devices will cause Microsoft’s market share to fall.”
Read the article at PCWorld.
Is it me or is the math a little off on this one:
“The server market will also remain mixed, with variants of Unix accounting for 36 percent, Windows for 35 percent, and Linux for 15 percent, he says.”
That adds up to 86 percent, where is the other 14 percent?
I think Linux should have share around 25% and Microsoft should have around 40% share in the server market. Mac counts for around 0.5 to 1.0 % share of the server market. The rest servers are running various flavors of Unix.
What you say makes sense.
Since I count linux as a Unix variant, I’m missing another 15 percent, so a total of 29 missing percent.
But seriously, 35% windows servers and only 36% unix, something’s really way off here.
I would actually reverse that I would have Linux and Variants at around 50% 30% for Windows, and the rest Unix and Macs.
For Desktop I see MS holding for years around 55%, Linux around 30% and macs around 15%. Why will Apple grow, simple lot’s of unix Geeks, are torn between the beauty of OS X, and the pure functionality of Linux.
For Misc. devices tivo,car systems, etc. 85% running Linux. The manufactures will be able to modify it to make fast booting, stable machine. Windows will get some foot hold here but the pricing wars will drive it out.
The other n% is going to be variations on BeOS and DOS
Mac counts for around 0.5 to 1.0 % share of the server market.”
Its bad enough that the “market share” number is so out of proportion to that which is factual, but you’re referring to share of the market as to how it relates to install base… which puts you GROSSLY out of proportion.
Stop spreading “The New Fud”
http://www.osviews.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=articl…
A big place for Windows is with companies that need one server that’ll do practically everything they need. Its main purposes are e-mail and network file sharing. Imagine how many smaller companies just need those two things (plus a web site, probably hosted by a hosting company), and have a bunch of Windows boxes sitting around. What do you think a relatively low-tech company like that is going to use for a server?
“Mac counts for around 0.5 to 1.0 % share of the server market.”
My bad, you were referring to server sales… rather than desktop sales.
In that case, you probably overstated the figure by loo large a margin.
Well, they could use almost any linux distribution on any old PC. They could use Windows, but it would cost a lot more.
NETWARE
NETWARE
Linux has 24%
Netware has 19%
Windows has 36%
Unix has 15%
source:IDC (2004)
http://www.idc.com/itforecaster/itf20000808.stm
I love netware
True, but if they don’t have a full time tech guy who’s got some Linux skills, the business people are probably going to have more to do with the choice making than not. At that point, they choose what’s comfortable.
the only reason i see windows on the server being a good idea is for manageing windows network or colaberative apps. imho, windows makes alot of sense on a pc, its easy to use, learn, and administer. *nix is non of those, but the tradeoff is power and flexibility.
i mean, i would get my kid cousin a fisher price “guitar”, but i wouldnt record an album using one.
Poor management, and inability to abide by international laws is what will shrink Microsoft’s OS market share, this researcher predicts.
I think that the closer we get to “tricorders” the more we will need OS’s like QNX. In time people may use their much further advanced PDA more then they use their desktop PC. These moble devices are evolving much quicker these days then the desktop. The desktop OS’s havent really evolved much since the 90’s
These moble devices are evolving much quicker
these days then the desktop. The desktop OS’s havent really evolved much since the 90’s
Finally someone who understand that things hasn’t changed much. Actually it hasn’t changed much since the 80’s.
However, I seriously doubt that the PDA will replace the desktop PC for most things. Not even tablets will be able to replace them. And actually, why do we need a replacement so badly?
While a PDA might be great for things like contact management, calendars, and to some extent browsing the web it can’t really replace the desktop pc for things like word processing, desktop publishing, graphics design, audio production, movie editing, image editing etc.
Well, it could do all that in theory, but what would the advantage be?
If some of the companies running Windows servers looked at NetWare (especially NetWare 6.5), some if not most will wonder why are they running Windows servers in the first place.
http://www.novell.com/products/netware/
“Well, it could do all that in theory, but what would the advantage be?”
Excuse me, but in theory? The screen is simply a bit too small to do some of the things in a _nice_ manner. I’d say a _laptop_ could do that (don’t know about tablet, but i’m replying to the PDA aspect). If i were to travel 2 hours by train i’d for certain do some productive things on a laptop for example. But on the PDA that’s slightly harder to do…
Even for a laptop… the question is wether it is really as user-friendly as a “normal” computer. The opinions differ. For example my uncle said he couldn’t use the thing for more than an hour. My mother actually wants one to be able to use the computer everywhere in the house she wants.
I don’t know what the most popular opinions are regarding usability of laptop vs. PDA vs. “normal” computer but i find it hard to believe that people would use a PDA for a long time and find its’ usage user-friendly.
Instead i think that people on home and work will still use “normal” computers most of the time. Between there, they travel. They have a computer in their with GPS. They have a PDA/Mobile phone-in-1 for between work and home (ie. for when shopping) but the PDA/MP-in-1 isn’t becoming their “default computer”…
Rather it stays like a gadget which perhaps will become as hyped as the GSM (MP).
It is very true; OSs really haven’t evolved that much in the past ten years, aside from at the high server end, with reliability and distributed functions.
Honestly, has anyone tried running Exchange, IIS and file and print serving from the same machine at the same time? It doesn’t work well. The best thing to do is to separate servers onto discrete machines.At that point, you need windows domain management, and then you hit NT’s reliability problems, and so you have backup servers for each server with mirroring. All this means lots of expensive servers, which not only inflate deployment numbers, but are very costly and take time to maintain. Such is life.
I’ve been working with networked systems for my (can’t tell people details) project. What I can say, is that phones are becoming as powerful as PDAs, laptops are staying the same, but saving power, desktops are migrating towards SFF and microATX at speed, network appliances are growing, based on microATX and embedded x86-like systems, home theatre systems are likewise growing and there is a blurring between desktop and small server systems. Finally, there is ambiguity as to where small, medium and large servers begin and end these days.
My prediction is simply this: All these systems are programmable, they had different uses, but now we are seeing tasks migrate between form factors (phones with personal information servers!). As a result, there is a serious and desperate need for an operating system that is able to address all sizes of computing devices, from the phone/PDA to the laptop, desktop, HTPC, router, server and mainframe. Like it or not, Linux fills that need. The ability to recompile the kernel with appropriate modules and size for requirements and use userland libraries and toolkits as size allows will make a lot of dfference. We have to be able to program for all of these systems at the same time, and that will be the challenge of the next ten years.
Oh…. And as an additional note, networking is becoming massively important, especially wireless, short-range transmission and long-distance wireless, such as MANs. The key to the next generation of killer applications will be access to all of your data and devices, wherever you are. Information Everywhere. File sharing, especially encrypted transfer across SSH will become important and tools to dynamically and intuitively associate your mobile devices, work machines and home computers and devices will fuel new usability. Do not underestimate the power of KDE’s KIO and GNOME’s VFS work.
Fin.
“The server market will also remain mixed, with variants of Unix accounting for 36 percent, Windows for 35 percent, and Linux for 15 percent, he says.”
That adds up to 86 percent, where is the other 14 percent?
—————————————
MVS, VMS, etc. Unix, Linux, and windows are not the only server OSes in existance.
You forgot the BSDs ;p
im guessing about the same as mac os or a tiny bit higher
Why are you trying to argue against me? If you actually read my post you would have realised that I agree with you.
It is possible in theory, but it’s not really possible in practice.
I wouldn’t want to switch my desktop box for a laptop. A laptop just isn’t as convenient as a desktop, unless you desire mobility. I’d like to have both but I really can’t afford a laptop
I use my cellphone to check e-mail when I’m travelling, and I visit a few wap-sites. But I rarely reply to e-mails on my cellphone since it’s so inconvenient.
The desktop computers won’t go away for a long time, if ever.
“Poor management, and inability to abide by international laws is what will shrink Microsoft’s OS market share, this researcher predicts.”
There is no “international law” in the way you think.
Oh but you misinterpet the reference. I am speaking of breaking many laws in multiple nations.
Oh sorry. I guess i misread something then. We agree on that as well?:)
What about Sun Solaris?Isn’t it a 5-10% of Solaris servers?