A bunch of figures travelled all over the web this past week regarding Android’s remarkable growth. Its growth is indeed remarkable – bigger than the iPhone, bigger than Research In Motion’s BlackBerry (in the US, at least). However, as impressive as those figures are, isn’t it about time we start comparing platforms instead of devices?
I won’t go into these figures too deeply, but the general gist is this: smartphones powered by Google’s Android operating system are incredibly popular, with massive growth figures and ever increasing sales. NPD, for instance, states that during the second quarter of 2010, 33% of smartphones sold in the US were were running Android, compared to 28% for RIM, and 22% for the iPhone. Another research firm, Canalys, came to the same conclusion. Nielsen has a very telling graph, too.
So, the inevitable is occurring right before our very eyes. Not too long ago, several people declared me crazy when I said that Android phones will – without a doubt – overtake the iPhone in sales figures. This is what I wrote:
Sure, Apple will most likely still make far more money per sold iPhone device than competitors will per Android phone, but the trend is clear: as much as I love my iPhone, it will be relegated to a ~10% market share figure within a few quarters. Apple didn’t launch the iPad just because it wanted to – it launched it because it needs to. They see the writing on the wall.
So, yeah, unicorns might not be real, but the popularity of Android sure is. Still, there are a number of possibly mitigating factors here that could possibly work in favour of Apple. For instance, the iPhone 4 leak was well-documented, and some claim this has caused a massive sales dip for Apple in Q2. The NPD data only covers 7 days of the iPhone 4 being available, so for a fairer comparison, we might have to wait until the results from Q3 are in.
But isn’t that kind of part of the problem here? We have several high-profile companies churning out Android phones at breakneck speed – Motorola, HTC, Samsung – and Apple, a single company, simply can’t keep up with this pace. The iPhone 4’s screen is pretty impressive compared to the competition, but for the rest, it’s been pretty much a catch-up effort for Apple.
The same more or less applies to the software side – yes, I personally believe that iOS 4 is slightly more polished than Android (mind, though, that my experience only goes as far as Android 2.1), but it still lacks many a feature I come to expect from a modern smartphone operating system. Like, you know, a notification system. A sort-of homescreen with at-a-glance useful information. Multitasking that amounts to more than a list of recently-used applications. That sort of thing.
There’s another problem for Apple, too: carriers. As hero, legend, and probably the best Mac OS X reviewer in the history of ever John Siracusa notes, if Apple wants to turn the tide in the US, it needs to get the iPhone on more carriers as soon as possible.
“The only way for Apple to eliminate the distribution and marketing advantage currently enjoyed by Android is to make sure that everywhere an Android phone is for sale, there’s an iPhone sitting right next to it that will work on the same network,” he explains, “Only then will Apple get a fair shot at selling based on the things it can actually control: the hardware and software of the phone itself.”
While Siracusa’s point is an astute one, it does ignore something very important, something these market analyst guys need to get into their skulls as well: it’s not hardware that matters, but software. We need to compare platforms, not devices. In other words, we need to compare Android to iOS – which includes the iPad and iPod Touch. Apple sells a whole boatload of these, and I’m sure iOS is actually still ahead of Android if you compare them platform to platform.
Even this advantage, however, may eventually be nullified by Android. The mobile operating system is set to appear on many tablets, and even televisions will get the Android treatment this year.
All in all, the writing is on the wall, and it has been for a while now, clear to see for anyone: Android will outpace iOS simply because more companies – manufacturers and carriers alike – are pushing it. There’s little Apple can do about it this late in the game, and even the mythical Verizon iPhone will probably arrive too late.
If it arrives at all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Google buttering up Verizon to not carry the iPhone at all. With these kinds of growth figures for its Android phones, should Verizon even care about that thing AT&T sells?
The condensed version is, “I told you so!”
Kidding aside, I agree with the article. However, I do believe a lot of this hinges on those “tablets coming out soon”. First it was all the ARM tablets with Ubuntu just around the corner. Now it’s Android (on ARM and others) just around the corner. I’ve been waiting since late 2008. That sure is one big corner!!
You can buy a few tablets with Android already. Really cheap ones with resistive touch screens for under 200 or big smartphone/tablet thingies like the Dell Streak.
I personally am waiting for the Notion Ink Adam. I really really need a Pixel Qi screen with the option to turn off the backlight. Staring into the light before going to sleep is “bad for you”(tm).
“The only way for Apple to eliminate the distribution and marketing advantage currently enjoyed by Android is to make sure that everywhere an Android phone is for sale, there’s an iPhone sitting right next to it that will work on the same network,”
Does anybody know the iPhone vs Android sales figures for the UK, where this is the case? The iPhone’s on every network and even available unlocked, so we can see if being on every carrier makes a difference by looking at the UK sales figures.
Here is a challenge – my 3GS has decided that I don’t need to use the right most portion of the screen, so basically the touch screen is knackered, Yes, restores and clean handset settings do not fix the issue. So… I’m going to replace this phone tomorrow morning. Please, UK people, suggest to me a UK Android handset that is *worth* having. I’ll most likely go for the O2 network, as that is my current provider, but if there is a compelling reason to change, I don’t really care.
So, to cut to the chase – show me the error of my ways and suggest ,e a good Android handset available in the UK. I will go and purchase it tomorrow if you can point me to a review that I can read through.
Sad that it has come to this, but the iPhone 3GS is a joke.
WARNING: iPhone 4’s are in stock at my local O2 shop – PLEASE SAVE ME FROM MYSELF!
get an htc deside! dont touch the motorola ones, all come with closed bootloaders.
I have an HTC Desire which I quite like but am not a smartphone expert. Here is a review from The Register where they give it 90% –
http://www.reghardware.com/2010/04/06/review_phone_htc_desire/
I’ll add to that:
It’s basically an Nexus One with more plastic and hardware buttons, but the superior part is the touchscreen chip is Atmel. Atmels chip is better than Synaptics’ chip in Nexus One.
PS: I am a happy owner of a Nexus One from Jan 12th.
Edited 2010-08-07 22:54 UTC
HTC Desire, Wildfire or Legend – as an owner of the last one, I can definitely recommend it. In the very beginning, even though being a Linux mascot for years, I’ve been very reluctant about Android, for some reason. Now, I’m pleased with it. Haven’t tried the Motorola offerings myself, though I hear good things about them, too.
Android really has exploded over the past few months. I just got a Nexus One and simply love it. It’s heads and shoulders above my previous Nokia 5800 touch screen phone in hardware, apps and OS features. And Android 2.2 is really leaps and bounds ahead of 2.1. My favorite feature is the portable hotspot. My coworkers and I can log into our Citrix server from our netbooks while driving without my even having to remove my phone from my pocket. Amazing. I’m starting to turn into one of those people I used to abhor who are always fiddling with his phone.
I agree with you in that the Nexus runs circles around the Nokia 5800 in hardware and availability of 3rd party apps, but the latter really comes with unbeatable free software and services. Two that I find really useful are free worldwide navigation with turn-by-turn voice assist (with free maps too) and push e-mail.
Sad thing about Nokia is their platform is too diversified which leads to 3rd party developers shunning it. But that may change once Qt becomes mainstream in the platform.
Edit:
Forgot to tell you that I just ate soup.
Edited 2010-08-07 04:51 UTC
Glad to see that someone on the internet is still sane.
I kept reading about the Nielsen report in various websites the past few days, and no one even mentioned that comparing a phone vs an operating system is completely pointless. I honestly can’t think of a single meaningful conclusion that can come out of these reports.
In my opinion there are a few different ways to approach the situation.
Device vs Device:
eg. Droid X vs iPhone 4 (not all iPhones)
Company vs Company on a given sector:
eg. Nokia vs Apple on smartphones
OS vs OS:
eg. iOS (iPhones, iPods and iPads) vs android.
In my opinion the last one is the single most important, since the OS with the most users is going to be target by the most developers thus it will have more applications and, by extend, users.
But comparing a device versus an os? That’s like saying that Bic sold more pens than Apple sold iPhones. Correct but meaningless.
ACK, but ..
This is IMHO Symbian. So, installation base / user numbers can’t be the whole story.
But I love it.
I can always tell a Thom article from a David Adams article without even scrolling to the top.
Additionally, I’m loving all the competition because I remember the time when all cellphones SUCKED and I just wanted a decent one with a calendar without having to buy a BlackBerry.
Thank you Apple for shaking up an industry once again!
Agreed … Thom is a sexual pink unicorn… it is refreshing to see his articles. Thank you David for not letting OS News die while Thom is away.
Come again?
I… I really don’t know. The pink and the unicorn, alas, but the sexual? I’m about as sexy as a moss-covered pebble.
I make up for it with my charming personality, though. I’m supposedly quite adorable.
I can tell if an article is Thom’s blind,
I press C-f unicorn and if my doesn’t beep during that process it’s his.
Samsung is also throwing its weight around in this industry with the new OS called Bada. They have recently reported 1 million sales of Wave.
I own one of these devices (Samsung Wave) and it is a pleasure to use, it is lightning fast and there is flash support in the browser too. The app store is growing slowly and appearently two more Bada handsets are coming soon.
The future of mobile devices is looking very bright at this stage with so many choices.
You mean that one company and one distributor got out sold by a bunch of companies? Shocking!
This really comes to the core of the issue at least in the US I think. It was an idiotic decision to lock it down to one provider and unfortunately I think this is going to be one major reason for the Android taking over iOS.
In my view, smartphones are becoming commodity devices thanks to Android and it wont be long before there’s little room for the closed nature of the iOS platform and probably the iPhone.
I’m not quite up to date with the developer numbers between iOS and Android but once it turns towards Android, which it will I believe, the game is up for iOS.
Android will dominate.
“installation base / user numbers can’t be the whole story.”
It’s not. Surely these factors are also important:
* Ease of finding and purchasing applications on device.
* Quality and cost of developer tools / SDK.
* Platform availability of developer tools / SDK.
* Willingness of user base to spend $$$.
One area where Android has a clear advantage over IOS is in platform availability of the SDK.
Yeah but not quality of the SDK sadly. Eclipse is slow and has a terrible UI, huge swathes of the API are badly or entirely undocumented, and you’re forced to write in Java which is a somewhat mediocre language.
Still, at least you can write any app (almost) for Android, and they don’t charge you $100 *per year* for the privilege.
The strange thing is that other countries do it too. There are some in Europe in Asia where the iPhone was and is exclusive to only one carrier. In some countries you can’t even get it from the official Apple distributors(!). If you want an iPhone it’s from that carrier ONLY and of course locked to their network. (Granted, they can always order from another country.)
I’m guessing it’s the more poor countries(?), where Apple didn’t expect to sell lots of iPhones directly to customers, so instead they sold the exclusivity to a carrier for [what they thought was] better money and let them deal with the retail.
Disclaimer: I own an HTC Desire and generally do never buy any Apple products for philosphy reasons – I am a free software nerd and do not like Apple’s “Closed Garden” attitude. (End of disclaimer)
Do you guys really think Apple cares that much about being the majority platform and “losing the game” and all that?
In do not. Not for a second.
Apple likes to make a boatload of money. They currently do with their products, be it MacBooks, iPods, iPads or iPhones.
Apple has an enormously loyal followership, even I know quite a few people who tried to get the new iPhone on the release day.
Apple is quite used to NOT being the majority seller in a given category of products. They never were with computers or notebooks, the success of the iPod came (I think) as quite a surprise (and due to unbelievable stupidity from Sony), the iPhone always had to battle with Blackberries, Symbians and heck, even Windows Mobile phones.
My personal opinion is: Apple really does not give a sh*t about being the “market leader” or whatever. They just want to make enormous profit. And be a worthwhile platform. And with a loyal followership with tons of money like Apple (and I guess the status they have in that regard is quite unique), they simply do not have to care if they own 60% or just 15% of the market – as long as their market share does not drop beyond a certain level where they become irrelevant. It even makes them more desirable if they are a niche player with super high quality products – I imagine quite a few of these Apple-Fans like to feel like they are a noble minority. After all, where is the fun in having some cool new iGimmick if everyone else has it too? You can’t even show off in front of your friends!
All the while we are discussing what kind of strategical errors Apple is making, they just squeeze out the money from their costumers. And some of those seem to be so deeply in love (or dependent) they might just cut out a pound of their own flesh for the newest iGimmick…
Edited 2010-08-07 11:11 UTC
Yes Apple doesn’t need market leadership to win (at least in the phone space), but it certainly helps them cash bags of money right now.
As discussed before it more an image point of view, the iOS give the dev an allmost, uniform platform to develop onto, where user are willing to upgrade to the most recent device/OS, where Android is clearly fragmented in version and device (it have done better than the windows CE, whatever …). And I read somewhere else that Iphone are more willing to spend money on apps than android phones owner (and this without the need of bloatware/trialware coming with the phone).
So the Iphone is still relevant for dev, and very relevant for user, who ultimately follow where the convenient apps are.
Couldn’t disagree more with this statement. Apple’s dev platform is so “1984”, which is what happens when you try to leverage popularity of your platform to settle “political” agenda’s (i.e. squeeze out adobe). I am a developer and currently develop for RIM and Android and seriously considering Symbian (windows 7 is a given), and will not consider touching iOS with a ten foot pole.
When it comes to owners of iPhone being more willing tyo spend money then owners of an Android based device, I completely agree. The average intelligence of an Apple consumer (and I am not talking aboput fruit here) is well bellow normal, which would explain why the farting app was once the most popular app in app store. Kidding aside, Apple’s strong point is marketing and PR and they continue to portray themselves as leading edge innovators who are not part of the mainstream. Take that away and all you are left with is a semi good device, supported in an appaling level (someone should start a class action law suit for this alone) for which you will have to pay an arm and a leg
Most ipod users are kids since you don’t need a data plan. That would skew the app store to favor all kinds of kiddie apps since ipod has such a large share of ios devices.
i think you are wrong… apple like to boss other enterpises around and if they are not the leader… devs wont sign their dev agreements policy, they wont be able to make book stores to lower their prices, they wont be able to ride the music industry and so on. (sry for my bad english
)… if they are not the industry leader, they wont have the arm to put their agenda to other companies.
I do.
Apple (and investors betting on Apple) are drunk with the power and opportunity they have/had in their reach.
To let that go away is an utter failure for Apple. People at Apple are going to be sorely disappointed if they are relegated to being a niche player *again*.
Yes, they were tired of being ~5% for so long. They feel it is finally their turn to call the shots. After all, they defeated WinMo, from mighty Microsoft, which was also available on multiple phones on multiple carriers…they will now honorably concede to Google, which had no previous experience with operating systems? By an OS that they claimed would only appeal to the techie geek fringe? It’s a big blow.
I agree. They could have gained an incredible amount of market share if they didn’t make the iphone an AT&T exclusive. I know people on Verizon that would have paid the unsubsidized price for the iphone if it was available.
Jobs doesn’t seem to care about market share as long as the margins are good.
The problem for Apple is that when it comes to the iphone, it is dependent on the carriers. If they feel the higher subsidy isn’t worth it and that they’d benefit more from google’s revenue sharing of ads and the market, Apple will have to give up more.
Yeah! Screw Apple with their WebKit, CUPS, Clang/LLVM, libdispatch, Darwin Streaming Server, Darwin CalDAV Server, countless contributions to BSD and GNU tools (esp. improved PowerPC support in GCC), and so on!
Down with Apple’s “Closed Garden” attitude!!
Welcome to capitalism where all corporations like to make a boatload of money.
Even Microsoft lets you have competing apps such as Firefox but many Apple fans got all upset and supported the anti-trust breakdown of the company. But when Apple is worse, it’s now ok.
Edited 2010-08-09 05:51 UTC
Most jurisdictions treat monopolies different from non-monopolies. Is it fair that you can do whatever you want until you hit 90% market share and then be suddenly punished for it? No.
But that’s not the point. Christian wrote that he boycotts anything from Apple, because in his eyes Apple is purely closed.
That’s painting the world black and white, but the world is not black and white.
It’s a plain fact that Apple releases tons of FOSS and in most cases without the need to do so. Apple releases more FOSS code than certain companies who advertise themselves as huge supporters of open source (*cough* Canonical *cough*) and no voting down my posts is going to change that fact.
Does this mean that Apples business tactics around iOS products are OK? No.
But arguing that because one business branch of one company makes the whole company a “closed garden” is short sighted — some may even call it stupid.
Most AT&T customers that wanted an iphone have already bought one.
There is still plenty of unmet demand on the Verizon side and Android is the only serious competitor.
Whenever an iPhone/Android article comes up there is always a debate of ‘what if they were on Verizon’.
the recent smartphone market changes from the first iPhone would have not happened if it were stuck on Verizon. Verizon wanted no part of it unless they could control it and make it do what they wanted.
Even today, Verizon has made it so Skype can only be installed on their phones, same goes for Skype for RIM.
iPhone users basically come in two kinds:
– Jailbroken kind.
– Latens iOS version.
Android users? Well, you have your Android versions (1.6, 2.x and soon 3), then there is the interface layer and the carrier application kit. The combination defines the android user and no way one of those combinations will be bigger than Apple iPhone installed base soon.
Take an HTC Desire which you bought at Vodafone in February 2010 as an example. It came with Android 2.1, with Android 2.2 hitting the streets in April. HTC only produced it’s version of 2.2 two weeks ago, which gave simlock-free customers update possibilities. For Vodafone it was the starting point for developing it’s update for its subscribers. It’s coming somewhere August, but no guarantees. Joe six pack really doesn’t understand why my simlock free Desire can do things, his Vodafone Desire can’t.
And the problem will get worse. This quarter carriers and producers will put out more Android phones than every before. The ‘to launch’ OS ranges from 1.5 to 2.2 with limited update possibilities in some phones. In November Android 3 will hit the streets. Can you imagine the discussions soon thereafter in the phoneshops when people start asking questions why their 2 months old Android 1.6 device won’t upgrade with a running contract of say 32 months left?
Disclosure: I own a simlock free HTC Desire, HTC Nexus One, Nokia N900, Apple iPhone 4 (and 3GS, 3G). Rooted and have jailbroken everything, reversed some and you name it.
Edited 2010-08-08 08:26 UTC
Why is that even a problem for Joe Sixpack? Joes and Janes don’t care all that much about having the latest and fastest update as soon as possible. I’m pretty geeky but perfectly happy with my 2.1 desire. If it gets updated, cool. Being late by weeks or a few months doesn’t matter at all. Even if it’s not updated at all, I wouldn’t really mind. It still does what it does.
Another Apple fanboy (check his comments to other articles)
i had android. i liked it but also kinda didn’t like it at the same time.
had some issues with android, or the phone “droid” wasn’t sure where the issue was coming from.
sometimes the alarm diddn’t ring. mabey only once a month. but thats a major issue to me. and almost every time i would go to use the GPS it would not work. and i would have to reboot. droid boots fast, so it wasn’t a big issue. but still, you shouldn’t have to reboot to get a feature to work.
those 2 issues caused me to try a palm pre. which the gps never worked on. that was lame. but at least the alarm worked.
saw the iphone 4 commercial and preordered the iphone4. sofar after trying android palm and iphone. i like the iphone best. not only do i not have any issues with the gps or alarm. but i also can buy videos and tv shows and put them on my phone. plus theres supposed to be a netflix app here pretty soon.