Submitted by In a recent interview with the British Sunday Observer, Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia, claimed that “it’s the next billion [internet users] who will change the way we think”. Such a big claim deserves some critical house room. Will the internet really change the way we think? Or are we just getting carried away? Gary Richmond explores the implications of the Wikipedia open source/free software knowledge paradigm and what it might mean for the way we think. You can read the full story at Freesoftware Magazine
Traditionally, wealth has come from hidden information, and the control of this information by a select few. Think patents, music, drugs, colleges, businesses in general. What happens when there is no more hidden information? Whoa! Income may instead may have to come from actual contribution to the community, versus doling out “slices” of valuable information.
Also, think of most governments. What if people worldwide _really_ knew what was going on? What if there was no selected “filtering” of information by media corporations and governments?
What if the Cubs win the World Series!!
While I agree with you, that hasn’t happened yet and probably won’t happen for some time (if ever).
Consider health care as a prime example. No matter how much you do your own research based on freely available information, you cannot bypass a doctor or other health professionals. While the information might become free, practically doing anything about it (ordering test, drugs, treatment…) will be controlled.
For revolutionary change to happen, powerful groups will have to be taken on and that isn’t likely to happen.
Care to take on the Medical associations, law bars…
In a strange way, this democratization of information, if it ever happens will be interesting. The doctor that doesn’t really provide any value, but just prescribes what you already know they’re going to or refer you to a specialist you already know you want to see, will be out of the job or not earn very much. yet the doctor that provides value (brain surgeon, emergency room doctor…) they will continue to thrive.
Similarly, lawyers who make their money by just filling out forms or playing the bureaucracy will be out of the job. yet lawyers who do provide value in negotiating, creating positions… will continue to thrive.
Even education. What value do you really get from an education that you could not get from a book? Yet what do you going to the ‘right’ university…you get the right contacts, the right environment, the right connections. That’s what you’re paying for. For example, my university has a job board (as do most) and we get listings you can’t find elsewhere. I’m sure top MBA programs get access to jobs/opportunities I could never dream of.
Edited 2008-06-25 20:55 UTC
Exactly my point. For years, Physicians have been making Kaboodles of money from folks due to secret knowledge. Once that knowledge becomes public and _peer reviewed_, most treatments will be obvious to all. Thus, only those pysicians who are actually contributing new knowledge to society survive. Those who have been repeating the few things they have learned in Med school will not be needed.
BTW, many of these same arguments apply to the IT profession. How many people are making their living off of editing cryptic config files, and programming duct-taped API’s. If this stuff is standardized, open, and community-driven, many of the needs for “experts” diminish. Only those who actually contribute new value to the system remain. Think of the early electronics days, when boards were hand-soldered, and many individual components monitored for failure. Now, a simple board, or even the entire device is replaced. The same will apply to software some day. Only a very small minority will be involved in creating components for the system.
The problem with your reasoning is that you don’t simply pay a physician for the information that you receive from him or her. What you’re primarily paying for is the DIAGNOSTIC that they perform — and the knowledge which converts that DIAGNOSTIC into a COURSE OF TREATMENT. For example, if you’re going in for a mammogram/breast examination, I don’t care how many blogs you read or medical websites you surf, you don’t have access to the equipment necessary to do a mammogram, nor do you have the expertise to do a breast exam (other than the most cursory kind). Further, you don’t have a deep enough knowledge to understand the available treatments, drugs, complications/side effects, surgical options, etc. In other words, there are IMPORTANT reasons why we go to people who specialize in certain things rather than try to do them ourselves, and that is the price of admission.
The problem with your reasoning is assuming we’re talking ALL physicians.
There are a lot of physicians that do a lot of great work and I gladly appreciate their services. Many are great at diagnosis or surgery or in the emergency room.
yet, I’ve met my fair share of doctors who do nothing but basic referrals to other real specialists and hand out basic prescriptions. They really offer the patient nothing more than a reasonably educated person could with proper resources.
In your example, I would hope I could one day I could just order myself an MRI without a doctor’s note and have it read by a specialist. Why do I NEED to go through an intermediate doctor?
heck so many tests today and automated and all they produce are easy numbers and graphs. based on that, they get certain treatments.
It’s like pharmacists. They’re little more than glorified cashiers in Canada (for example). The entire practical work they do can be automated by a computer. They have a list of drugs and they can cross reference it to see the conflicts. You don’t think anyone could completely make their job redundant with a basic database application available to the public?
The pharmacist thing is an interesting example of why you think they could be replaced, yet anyone with enough experience with health problems can attest that there’s more to it than that, that simply can’t be fully automated. You see, where your example breaks down is that a good pharmacist will ask you questions about things you might not even think to ask yourself if you simply attempt to do a brain dump into a database, like what other things are you currently using in conjunction with other things, what’s your physiology do in response to this item (I assure you, not everyone responds in the same way, or even sometimes at all, to various medications or other dietary supplements/dietary differences) and that can actually make a practical difference in results. In essence, with their formal training, and their interaction with customers (assuming you don’t get things via mail order) as well as doctors (sometimes doctors write prescriptions that make no sense in the grand scheme of things when combined with other things patients conveniently don’t tell them about, and at least in the US, medical records aren’t guaranteed to be synchronized everywhere) a good pharmacist is a reality check between doctors and patients and health insurers: in essence, in many ways, they can act as sort of a QA employee for health care. Of course, if they’re lousy pharmacists, they don’t care about more than simply pushing pills for a profit, and don’t investigate whether (with the knowledge they have that often a disconnected network of doctors and supplement providers don’t know) something is likely to cause a real problem or not.
Now, as someone above posted, I have to agree: even a non-surgeon can be far more valuable for diagnostic purposes than anyone that has simply swallowed a bit of a dictionary/book is, because for one thing, how one person describes how something feels or looks differs from others quite often, and most people aren’t sufficiently adept at knowing what’s “normal” or “correct” to determine when something is whacked, and there’s lots of things a good doctor will investigate as potential symptoms based on what a patient tells them, and their appearance, of which they may not be consciously aware of. And in the case of those that refer you to other doctors? In many cases, that’s not nearly the evil incompetence you’d seem to point out it to be that makes them of no real value: they know enough (that most patients don’t know) to be able to decipher that there’s something beyond their expertise, and recognize and direct patients to those they know are better-suited to the situation. After all, in the computer world, you don’t ask someone that’s an Excel expert to write a database meant to handle deep analytics, but they hopefully know who does, who also is unlikely to be an expert in Excel and spreadsheets to the same degree.
Th facts of the matter when it comes to attempting to fold people’s jobs that require expertise into a purely automated form is this: it takes a heck of a lot of time first of all for people to become domain experts sufficient to create a great database, as well as it being highly unlikely they could dump all their knowledge and experience in something as complex as a good doctor’s into a database, and even if they could accomplish that without having developers add some sort of errors into the mess, there’s then the issue of having the general population competent enough to know how to enter the riht things into it and get answers back out. And, of course, there’s the judgment to rule in/out whether or not the returned information really makes sense in their particular case. The problem when it comes to people is that we’re all unique, just like everyone else, and that simply can’t be readily encoded into a discrete decision tree that are amenable to common database applications like we have at this time, and then there’s the reality that despite all we think we know, diseases keep on mutating with time, and we also discover and diagnose new mutations of things that may have previously existed, that weren’t recorded in the past, which would likely be totally missed by the most perfect of automated systems any group of humans could create.
Mine always asks me for my insurance card and whether it is a debit or a credit.
ps. – The point of my original post wasn’t to state an all or nothing proposition. There will always be a need for Doctors, Lawyers, Nurses, Electricians, Pharmacists, etc, etc. I am merely pointing out that as the general knowledge of the public increases – and especially the _availability_ of that knowledge – the dependence on high-priced specialicts _lessens_. It doesn’t go away. Ultimately, everyone benefits except my “hyperbolic” pharmacist above who only want your credit card. Those who do (and there are some!) interact with the customer and provide a service to the community will remain. It is those positions who exist (in whatever knowledge-driven profession) merely due to the locked-down information of a specific body of knowledge that have the most to fear. I especially think of universities. Often, the information in a given major could be obtained and demonstrated though testing. Most of the CS classes I take, I know far more about the subject than the teacher. What if there were a proficiency exam for CS that anyone could take to demonstrate their proficiency? Schools would lose a ton of money. Textbook manufacturers/publishers above all should fear. They have locked in whole generations into buying fat, expensive books to lug around. Most of classes don’t even use the book, yet I ahve to spend the dough.
Wow, this thread generated a lot of text!
Edited 2008-06-26 19:12 UTC
I work at a local elementary school, and in a doctor’s office, so I have a couple perspectives on stuff being said in this thread which I shall express in a wall of text.
Things are changing, for sure. In our school district, we refer to stuff like the exact date of some battle or who the 8th president of the USA was as “Google Knowledge”, not necessarily worth spending time and effort on memorizing, as one can find it in a snap with the internet. Actually, it might only be those of us involved in the gifted program who call it that..
That said, the bit some people are saying about physicians is ludicrous.
Thus, only those pysicians who are actually contributing new knowledge to society survive.
Sure, go ahead and operate on yourself. Or have your buddy do it while he reads the medipedia article. Someone else can run the anesthesia (after researching how much to apply, and when to give more or how much is too much, knowing lives could be on the line, then buying the equipment and anesthesia itself.) Then with the implements you’ve researched and ordered over the internet (expensive. Maybe you rented?) you can cut away. If something you didn’t foresee goes wrong you can hurry and google it. Fortunately you took the time to order up some compatible blood earlier.
Of course all this was done after you researched how to interpret the xrays you made with your rented xray machine. Afterwards, you’ll stitch yourself up with a practiced hand (you practiced repeatedly on a football earlier) so you don’t get some funky scar.
And when you’re done, you can take some of the drugs you obtained after proving you were only going to use them as legitimate painkillers (which should be easy, the government is pretty lax about narcotics). And you won’t overdose or become addicted because you researched how much to give yourself.
OK, let’s leave behind the reductio ad absurdum. Maybe you were only talking about diagnosing yourself. Well sure you can do that. But if you expect a doctor to act on it without first making sure you’re right, you’re off your rocker. And severely underestimating the complexity of diagnosing things. There’s a reason doctors specialize. None of them live long enough to become experts in every field of medicine. In that light it’s preposterous that you, when something goes wrong, can get up to speed in a reasonable amount of time and give yourself a timely and reliable diagnosis.
Maybe you’re just talking about what figuring out which medicine to take when you get sick. There’s a reason some drugs aren’t available over the counter. Expense, side effects, interactions with other drugs and preexisting conditions you might not have thought about etc. And of course, you hit medipedia on a day when you can be sure it hadn’t been vandalized.
Admittedly, we’re getting into the realm of things you could believably use the internet to research after starting from scratch, but you know at least some people would do it wrong (like all those tards who buy laptops with glossy screens), meaning no pharmacist is going to hand drugs out to some non doctor who claims he knows what he needs. At any rate, we have a term for people like that: “drug seekers”. ‘Cause everyone wants drugs for the right reasons. “I swear, I researched it on Google and this is what I need. I need it man!”
In your example, I would hope I could one day I could just order myself an MRI without a doctor’s note and have it read by a specialist. Why do I NEED to go through an intermediate doctor?
Because MRIs are expensive and if you order them willy nilly that’s a lot of money someone (hopefully you) is paying? I guess if you want to foot the bill.. or maybe you’re counting on the insurance companies to pay for it. Without a doctor though it’ll be up to you to convince them it was necessary, after determining for yourself if it is a covered procedure and under what circumstances. And then you’ll “have it read by a specialist.” What’s that? By a physician? One who might not be contributing knew knowledge? I thought we were obsoleting them!
So anyway, sure you can use the internet to decide of some annoying sympton is benign, or if you really do need to go to those parasite doctors, former hoarders of knowledge that is now free. But can you be sure? Going to bet your life on it? Well, feel free. You can do that already.
**********
I’m as excited as anyone about the diminished need to memorize everything. But let’s not get carried away. Some knowledge (like what is used in medicine) is more than a collection of facts. We’re not going to see professions that take years of college and residency and then continuing education disappear because people can look stuff up.
Edited 2008-06-26 02:29 UTC
I worked as a chemist for a company that had 35 chemists. They replaced 30 of them with machines and used factory workers to run most of the routine tests. It worked without any problem. The remaining chemists were mainly used to do research.
There are already automatic ‘pharmacists’ available in some hospitals. The doctor writes an electronic prescription. The robot selects the pills from a rack and prints out the medication advice.
Differential diagnosis in medicine is already largely computerised and readily available for PDA type devices.
Many medical procedures can be performed by people other than doctors. In fact the results often have to be explained to doctors. Pathology reports always have a list of normal values and a concise explanation of the results.
Routine analytical chemistry and pathology is now mostly performed by unskilled lab assistants. 1. Place a sample in the machine. 2. Press the start button. 3. Wait for printout of results.
Even surgery will be mostly robotised within a few decades.
“Only a very small minority will be involved in creating components for the system.”
How disturbing.
The system is down.
When the Internet is wearable and instantly accessible via voice/eye command or gesture, then things will change. When using the Internet stops being classified as “cheating” on exams or in school, then things will change.
Think about it. You appear a hell of a lot smarter when you have instant access to all of your friends and co-workers, and all of the available information on the Internet. When it gets to the point where you can access that information about as quickly and seamlessly as your own memory, then we are talking.
it probably just means another billion stupid youtube videos, “first” posts and lots of lols.
for every decent and accurate piece of information on the internet there are 1000 videos of monkeys beating off to cancel it out.
there is no way it’s getting any better than that.
And don’t forget to mention all the delicious spam, already more than 90% of the overall mail traffic.
For every imaginable theory, there is a proof why the theory is true, and a proof why the theory isn’t true.
The only thing that could get better may be mankind’s ability to select better between data and information. But let’s face it: Most people do passively consume some content…
Achtung!
Das Internet is nicht für Gefingerclicken und Youtuben! Ist nicht für Gewerken bei das Dumpkopfen. Das Mausklicken sichtseeren
keepen das Virus-Spammen hans in das pockets muß; relaxen und
watchen das 404!
For entertainment use only. 🙂
I think Internet may very well prove to be as important culturally and historically as the invention of printed press (or telephone or radio) was – but not so much as just a new way to store or even send information (like in traditional one-way media), but as a completely new multi-way and multilayer global communication sphere.
Maybe Internet won’t exactly change the way we think, very much, but it has and will continue to have a major impact on the development of our culture, including values and social structures, anyway.
Internet is still very young but it has already changed many things in economics, education, politics, communication, both on an individual and international level – and we’ve only seen just the very beginning of that change.
Internet has provided new means for global online cooperation too. For example, the whole free software and open source movement (Linux etc.) could be seen only as one natural byproduct of the Internet Age too.
Time will tell what kind of balance – if any – will be found between the chaotically free information flow online (some good, some bad) and the different forces that try to control it (some good, some bad), and how that will continue to mold culture?
After more than twenty five years of experience with the Internet, I can safely say that nobody thinks any differently now than they did a quarter century ago.
Easier access to data has changed the way people behave, but they still use it in the same ways they always have.
they are Upgrading The Entire Internet via a FULL INTERNET UPGRADE!!!!!! Hopefully it’ll be soon.