“I am not a cynic by nature, but years of experience in the IT world have compelled me to make sure that everything passes the smell test. As a result, I can often tell beforehand whether I am hearing marketspeak or the real deal. For instance, 5 minutes after I figured out what Larry Ellison’s network computer was, I knew it would never be successful. And so did Larry Ellison, given that Oracle never actually built any of them. So with that in mind, let’s revisit the top 10 overhyped, overmarketed, overbsed (if there is such a word) computer industry events of 2005.”
Some drip spews more useless dribble! Just what the internet needs! This is TOP QUALITY information about operating systems, NO QUESTION ABOUT IT!
The server is super slow. Did anyone get a copy of the article?
What is so special about this guy’s opinion that makes it worthy of being linked here? Seems more like “master of the obvious” stuff to me than anything remotely insightful.
I think it would be more accurate the call the author of that article a windbag. 99.9% of us aught to have better things to do than read someone’s grievences on legitimate news, no matter how hyped. The site doesn’t clearly imply that it’s opinion either: the title “Top 10 Overhyped Stories of 2005” sounds like it’s an official majority opinion instead of one person’s undesired griping.
If the technologies got enough mention to be deemed hype then at least it means someone cared about them, not like this article which just by being mentioned on OSNews aught to make it on that list somewhere.
As everyone can see, we can all complain. Why is it that some of the most redundant or overstated complaints get front page mention on news sites? Whatever happened to posting real news, interesting articles and important events which will impact the future, these days it seems anyone with something to complain about makes it to a front page somewhere while all the interesting news goes days without being noticed.
Yes I know critiquing is good sometimes, but this is just one guy’s list of news he’s tired of reading.
I could only read the first half of the article…agree with most of the 5. But I think VOIP is under hyped, if anything… Sure it is slow to catch on in the US, but it is gaining momentum in the rest of the world.
Yes, VoIP is doing good in some parts of the world. In France, my only phone company is now my ISP (free.fr). I get unlimited free calls throughout France (land lines), the US, UK, Germany and several other countries. And all of this is done through VoIP.
Plus, I get 24Mbps down and 1Mbps up DSL, TV service with about 100 free channels, VOD and a media player through the Freebox modem.
It’s 29.99 Euros per month, they have 1.5 milion customers and are growing fast. All the other ISPs here are following them, even AOL.
i think i am starting to learn french right now and i will come to live in France soon
You’re probably kidding, but I’m actually seriously considering this. I don’t speak French though, but I’m hoping that I’ll learn it fast enough when I move there
> But I think VOIP is under hyped, if anything…
I think VOIP is way overhyped, speaking as someone who uses it on a regular basis. Basically, it suffers from a lot of problems that need to be solved before it will be a reliable source of communication:
* No access to the 911 emergency system, or local information numbers such as 411, 311, etc.
* Toll free calls (800 numbers) are usually unaccessible because calls coming from VOIP systems don’t identify their location of origin correctly.
* Fading is common, with voice cutting out several seconds at a time.
* Dropped calls are way too common.
* Severe echoing problems that show up on a very regular basis, with your own voice being echoed back to you.
* Person on other end of call often ends up sounding electronic or like a robot.
* Touchtones for navigating automated systems rarely work correctly, and often don’t work at all.
* Service outages are way more common than with traditional telephone service.
Because of all of this, VOIP is way overhyped. And it has a long way to go before it can really be relied on as a real replacement for traditional telephone service.
Edited 2005-12-18 20:27
..or so it seems. It’s under serious strain.
I got partialy through however:
Top 10 Overhyped Stories for 2005
I am not a cynic by nature, but years of experience in the IT world have compelled me to make sure that everything passes the smell test. As a result, I can often tell beforehand whether I am hearing marketspeak or the real deal. For instance, 5 minutes after I figured out what Larry Ellison’s network computer was, I knew it would never be successful. And so did Larry Ellison, given that Oracle never actually built any of them. So with that in mind, let’s revisit the top 10 overhyped, overmarketed, overbsed (if there is such a word) computer industry events of 2005.
10. SOA
I love it when the hype is deafening. It means that it reached the climax and the technology is about to come crashing down. Open any magazine targeted towards IT management (InfoWorld, Computer World, etc…) and you’ll see conferences, workshops and other get-togethers on SOA (Service Oriented Architecture). All designed to bilk customers out of their money. Btw, do you notice that when an executive or an analyst speaks about SOA, they all speak in generalities, like they don’t exactly know what it means? That’s because they don’t exactly know what it means. Let’s break it down. SOA is mostly about Web Services. Ok? Web Service. That’s what SOA is all about. If you thought Web Service was an overused $10 word for an RPC call dripped in XML chocolate, then SOA is a $100 word. IT executives, afflicted with the Airplane Magazine Syndrome©, that read these publications normally have only a cursory understanding of what it takes to make a system work (and hopefully perform). Thus companies that rewrite all their perfectly functioning software in SOA fashion are likely to have a rude performance wake-up. Web Services are SLOW. That’s because their payload is XML, which is bloated. And because the nature of web services is stateless, many times it requires more round trips to get the basic information. So Web Services are fine for applications that are not performance sensitive, like general office apps (accounting, sales, HR, etc… ) But stick them on anything that requires scale and performance… That’s what Mozilla Foundation learned when they based their Mozilla Update code on the use of Web Services – they just don’t scale. MoFo has since switched to regular HTTP for Microsoft SQL Server
and Sybase Adaptive Server Enterprise for the task. Oh and interoperability, yes, interoperability. If the Web Services are interoperable, why in the world are there products to facilitate communications between a C# client and a Java Web Service? So while SOA (or Web Services) clearly have a certain place in the enterprise, please go ahead and rewrite all your software in SOA. Why? Because it keeps software developers perpetually employed. ((Hold done, why am I complaining?)
9. VOIP – This is the way we screw the phone company.
The attraction to VOIP is easy to understand. Both data & voice flow over the same data link. And chances are that eventually, among businesses, it’ll be the norm – the PBXes will be integrated into the overall scheme. A massive movement may happen on the consumer front as well, though, not until home builders install as many CAT 5 jacks into homes as they do phone jacks today. Another problem to overcome is that many VOIP phones take several minutes to boot up and come to a usable state (ostensibly to load up the various stacks, connect to gateway, obtain an IP address, etc…
However, the thought, that the consumers will be able to somehow use VOIP for free to replace the phone is preposterous. The phone companies have been at the greed game for way to long to allow something silly like that. But I am already paying for my internet access and so my line is already paid up, I hear the objections. That doesn’t matter. Consider 2 facts: phone companies provide a large chunk of the world’s internet backbone and you want to take your money elsewhere, but still use their infrastructure. So, logically speaking, you already paid for you internet connection, but you are taking their business away. So either one of 2 things may happen: consumer internet access will become more expensive as the phone companies lose more PSTN customers or they’ll block the likes of Skype and Vonage. Don’t take my words for it – read what SBC wants to do to you ( http://www.businessweek.com/@@n34h*IUQu7KtOwgA/magazine/content/05_… ) (search for Vonage on the page to get to the point quick). I suspect that other phone monopolies will be just as ruthless.
8. Apple switches to Intel
This event was one of the few that actually lived up to its hype. And the reasons for the switch were sound as well. What did stun me was the turnaround of the legions of fanboys who were previously screaming “megahertz myth”. They just ate the yummy crow and went on bleating the next party line like the sheep in George Orwell’s Animal Farm. So now they’ll have to quickly think up of reasons why CISC architecture is better than RISC and why Intel doesn’t suck and why MMX/SSE is in fact pretty good, and maybe even better than the Altivec. It will be interesting to see when AMD becomes the target of their derision, because it isn’t their new sugar daddy – Intel.
7. Firefox will take over the world
When Firefox 1.0 came out, I predicted that by the end of 2005 Firefox would garner at least 15% of the worldwide market share. I based that on the following thought: probably 5% of the computer users are techies. Then another 10% of the users are in sphere of influence of the individual techie (i.e. provides family/friends with tech support). Various pundits and zealots even went as far as proclaiming the end of Internet Explorer. Well neither prediction occurred. You know why? Because people are mostly driven by inertia. IE’s shenanigans are not an annoyance big enough to most people that they will actively go out and find a replacement (or would even know how). Most people (who aren’t computer experts/hobbyists) are just happy that the damn thing works at all. The whole situation reminds me of an old “In Living Color” sketch, where Damon Wayans is the Apathy Man – a super hero with all the powers that a superego usually has, but with no motivation to use them. Despite being an unquestionably better browser, Firefox basically failed to catch on among the people that are just home users and make up the vast majority of browser consumers. Still, I would like it if Firefox got a larger market share, simply because it is a better browser and better products should win in the marketplace.
6. The case for IPv6. NOT.
5 years ago IPv6 seemed to be a shoe-in. There weren’t enough IP addresses to go around and we kept on hearing that China and India need more. Today, after the NATs blew the roof of the problem, all that the proponents of IPv6 can do is point to the mythical take-up of the technology in Asia. This is akin to a failed US rock’n’roll band claiming they are huge in Europe. So despite the never-ending proclamations that it’s imminent, IPv6 is a solution in search of a problem. Oh and did I mention that the basic IPv6 packet is much larger than IPv4 one? Yeah, you get a nice bump in bandwidth requirements. The only parties still interested in it are large corporations with control issues and hardware vendors who want to sell you a new set of routers, hubs, network cards, etc… Still, I’d like to see IPv6 take hold one day, because, imo, everyone should have a static ip available to them. Here is a good synopsis of IPv6 mess. ( http://cr.yp.to/djbdns/ipv6mess.html )
Part 2:
5. Grid/Utility Computing
Ah, yes! The grandure and allure of becoming a utility company. You get to be a monopoly and no one can do a damn thing about it. The IBMs, Suns and the HPs of this world simply love the idea. I mean what could be better – just tell me how much you need it and I’ll provide it for you. Clean as a whistle. HP even came up with a metric to measure your computer usage: computon – how cute. Sun is calling theirs “Sun Power Unit”. They can just see it – a monthly bill, just like electricity where you pay for your megahertz. And just to think that the only barrier that stands in their way is common sense. Yeah, that’s a go.
Another hot spot word is Grid Computing, which in its commercial application is similar to Utility Computing (in academic application, it’s a whole other deal). There is only one problem – grid computing solves problems that lend themselves to parallel processing. Most problems are solved in a sequential manner. Besides most corporate applications require so much setup (databases, application servers, file servers, app farms, web farms, dairy farms, etc…) that for most companies this will be a non-starter.
4. Fuel Cells
I’ve been hearing about fuel cells and how this is the year of the fuel cell and about fuel cell startups for as long as I can remember. The supposed advantages are clear: it’s a clean technology. Longer lasting technology. For instance, theoretically a laptop with a fuel cell battery can run for a year without recharging. So all these pieces of technology have been almost here for more than a decade now. Almost but never here. So why won’t it get here? #1 is economics. Currently fuel cells are too expensive. You could get a fuel cell UPS today, but it’ll be much more costly than a regular UPS. Another point of the hype is how it’s going to be a clean technology. Not necessarily. When the hydrogen is obtained from fossil fuels, there are still considerable carbon emissions. Still, it’s better than what the combustion engine does today. Anyway, I am hoping that 2006 will really be the year of the fuel cell.
3. The Google/Sun event.
Even though it was a simple press-conference, Sun, a company bankrupt of ideas and purpose, pimped it like its best prostitute was getting a face list. The date of the press conference was announced well in advance, but the topic wasn’t and the pundits went into overdrive. What could it be? The more clueless “experts” were saying that Google would provide the OpenOffice interface via the web. Fortunately, Google is made up of techies, not morons. Other pundits were claiming that Google would distribute OpenOffice via its web site. And this is better than just getting it from the OpenOffice site how? I don’t know either. The actual truth was more whimper than bang. Basically Sun would distribute the Google Toolbar with its Java Runtime. Now that’s a fun piece of information – let’s distribute a product having absolute zero to do with the Java Runtime. Never mind that the Google Toolbar isn’t even written in Java. This, of course, was a press conference just for the sake of media whoring. So basically speaking, given enough money, Sun will distribute pretty much anything with JRE. Today the Google Toolbar, tomorrow the spyware toolbar. Lovely. Another argument for open sourcing Java. In addition, the decision was billed as an engineer at Sun reaching out to a former co-worker at Google. I call bs on that. No engineer in his/her right mind would propose something so useless.
2. Web 2.0 aka the Coming AJAX Revolution.
This is simply awesome. Bring it on. Web 2.0. Yeah. Will build desktop style apps in the browser, like it’s 1999. Yep, the stench of the dot com bubble is rising up again. Everyone points to Google Maps and Gmail. Let’s start with the former. While undoubtedly nice, a great technological feat, huge improvement over MapQuest, Expedia and every other mapping solution on the web, I still prefer Streets & Trips 2005. Why? Because 5 minutes after the novelty of dragging maps around the browser wore off, I still needed to know how to get from point A to point B. And a desktop application is just better and faster at it. I much prefer a web enabled application such as Google Earth (which is awesome). It combines the availability of 100 GB of information with usability of a desktop application. Let’s now examine Gmail. When I first got my invite, I was stunned by its simplicity, speed and functionality. However, once again, as the novelty wears off, I don’t think I’ll find anyone in their right mind who will claim that it’s more useful than Mozilla Thunderbird. Look at the advantages of a Thunderbird: web-enabled, the mail is local, the rss and newsgroups are optionally offline, so you can use the app even when there is no Wi-Fi in sight. In contrast, none of the Web 2.0 apps will work without a connection to the net.
Now let’s look at Ajax. The first time around it was called XMLHTTP request. On the other hand, Ajax sounds sexier. Ajax first made its appearance in Internet Explorer 4.0, of all places, in 1998. I first heard of it in 2000 when AltaVista was using it. Then finally, Mozilla/Firefox implemented what was once a proprietary Microsoft technology sometimes in 2003/2004, making, what was to become, Ajax cross platform, cross browser. Finally, someone came up with the term Ajax (which I initially thought referred to a Dutch soccer team), thus ushering the era of Web 2.0. Basically, Ajax allows the web page to fetch some piece of the information from the server, sparing it from having to make a full round trip. While this ability is nice and could be done previously via the use of IFRAME (with some work, of course), a new programming paradigm it does not make. So all the hype you hear about word processing/spreadsheets/etc… on the web will remain just that – a steaming pile of hype. It seems that all that was needed for the success of Ajax was a new name. Ajax, on its own, is a great technology and will become a part of a developer’s arsenal – but not much more than that.
1. Linux will make gains on the desktop or “This is the year of Linux”
The SAT exams should include this question:
“Duke Nukem Forever” is to vaporware like
“This is the year of Linux on the desktop” is to ________
The answer, of course, is hype. So why doesn’t Linux catch on, given that it’s free, etc…? Let’s start with the basics, to displace something entrenched, you must be much better, not just incrementally better. Linux is not better than XP by any stretch of imagination. So the only thing that it’s got going for it in the battle for the marketplace is the fact that it is free as in beer (regular computer users don’t care, much less understand, about free software, open source, whatever…). However, the problem is that to a regular computer user who buys a Linux PC, the OS isn’t free (just like Windows). Somewhere along the line some middleman, be it an integration house, red hat or whoever, charges for it (for support, packaging, etc…). Thus the appeal of the free OS is somewhat diminished. Many Linux proponents were hoping that the movement of corporate applications toward the web server would make the client OS irrelevant. I am afraid, that didn’t happen: all the apps that were gonna move to the web server already did so with virtually no effect on the client OS market. What’s more, some enterprises are starting to move their applications back to the client with the ClickOnce technologies that allows the application to be deployed as simply as a web app, yet retain the functionality of desktop app, similar to Google Earth. Which, of course, locks you back into Windows.
Comment to 6: Yes the ipv6 header is longer 364bits (ipv6), 160 (+32 optional field used for adit. options)
(ipv4) so there vill be more overhad, but there will still be less overheaf in processing a pacet on a router:
No header checksum thet needs recalculating at each hop
fragmentation is end to end so intermidiet routers dont need extra prosesing for fragmentet packets (apart from te incresed number of packets
and the clasick: wast address space sp we no longer need nat and allso get more hirarkial routing witch reduses the size of routing tables
Note: These are just a few of the benifits, so plz dont’t make a lot of posts telling me ” you forgot X.Y and ….”
IPv6 is not hype, it’s comming the only question is when (I hope it’s soon, I.m tired of one dynamic ip and my isp told me tha he will not give out static ipv4 addresses so I hawe to wait for IPv6 or change isp ( no way the oterones around here are to expensive)
Looking at your post, is English even your second language?
I mean a few spelling mistakes are fine, but wow… I just counted 23 and probabaly missed a few…
You are right English is my secon lang. and writen Englis or for that mater norwegian (my first lang.) has never been a strong point for me. My biggest problem is lazyness, I don’t bother reading my posts
5. Grid/Utility Computing
Ah, yes! The grandure and allure of becoming a utility company. You get to be a monopoly and no one can do a damn thing about it. The IBMs, Suns and the HPs of this world simply love the idea. I mean what could be better – just tell me how much you need it and I’ll provide it for you. Clean as a whistle. HP even came up with a metric to measure your computer usage: computon – how cute. Sun is calling theirs “Sun Power Unit”. They can just see it – a monthly bill, just like electricity where you pay for your megahertz. And just to think that the only barrier that stands in their way is common sense. Yeah, that’s a go.
Another hot spot word is Grid Computing, which in its commercial application is similar to Utility Computing (in academic application, it’s a whole other deal). There is only one problem – grid computing solves problems that lend themselves to parallel processing.
Most problems are solved in a sequential manner. Besides most corporate applications require so much setup (databases, application servers, file servers, app farms, web farms, dairy farms, etc…) that for most companies this will be a non-starter.
4. Fuel Cells
I’ve been hearing about fuel cells and how this is the year of the fuel cell and about fuel cell startups for as long as I can remember. The supposed advantages are clear: it’s a clean technology. Longer lasting technology. For instance, theoretically a laptop with a fuel cell battery can run for a year without recharging. So all these pieces of technology have been almost here for more than a decade now. Almost but never here. So why won’t it get here? #1 is economics. Currently fuel cells are too expensive. You could get a fuel cell UPS today, but it’ll be much more costly than a regular UPS. Another point of the hype is how it’s going to be a clean technology. Not necessarily. When the hydrogen is obtained from fossil fuels, there are still considerable carbon emissions. Still, it’s better than what the combustion engine does today. Anyway, I am hoping that 2006 will really be the year of the fuel cell.
3. The Google/Sun event.
Even though it was a simple press-conference, Sun, a company bankrupt of ideas and purpose, pimped it like its best prostitute was getting a face list. The date of the press conference was announced well in advance, but the topic wasn’t and the pundits went into overdrive. What could it be? The more clueless “experts” were saying that Google would provide the OpenOffice interface via the web. Fortunately, Google is made up of techies, not morons. Other pundits were claiming that Google would distribute OpenOffice via its web site. And this is better than just getting it from the OpenOffice site how? I don’t know either. The actual truth was more whimper than bang. Basically Sun would distribute the Google Toolbar with its Java Runtime. Now that’s a fun piece of information – let’s distribute a product having absolute zero to do with the Java Runtime. Never mind that the Google Toolbar isn’t even written in Java. This, of course, was a press conference just for the sake of media whoring. So basically speaking, given enough money, Sun will distribute pretty much anything with JRE. Today the Google Toolbar, tomorrow the spyware toolbar. Lovely. Another argument for open sourcing Java. In addition, the decision was billed as an engineer at Sun reaching out to a former co-worker at Google. I call bs on that. No engineer in his/her right mind would propose something so useless.
2. Web 2.0 aka the Coming AJAX Revolution.
This is simply awesome. Bring it on. Web 2.0. Yeah. Will build desktop style apps in the browser, like it’s 1999. Yep, the stench of the dot com bubble is rising up again. Everyone points to Google Maps and Gmail. Let’s start with the former. While undoubtedly nice, a great technological feat, huge improvement over MapQuest, Expedia and every other mapping solution on the web, I still prefer Streets & Trips 2005. Why? Because 5 minutes after the novelty of dragging maps around the browser wore off, I still needed to know how to get from point A to point B. And a desktop application is just better and faster at it. I much prefer a web enabled application such as Google Earth (which is awesome). It combines the availability of 100 GB of information with usability of a desktop application. Let’s now examine Gmail. When I first got my invite, I was stunned by its simplicity, speed and functionality. However, once again, as the novelty wears off, I don’t think I’ll find anyone in their right mind who will claim that it’s more useful than Mozilla Thunderbird. Look at the advantages of a Thunderbird: web-enabled, the mail is local, the rss and newsgroups are optionally offline, so you can use the app even when there is no Wi-Fi in sight. In contrast, none of the Web 2.0 apps will work without a connection to the net.
Now let’s look at Ajax. The first time around it was called XMLHTTP request. On the other hand, Ajax sounds sexier. Ajax first made its appearance in Internet Explorer 4.0, of all places, in 1998. I first heard of it in 2000 when AltaVista was using it. Then finally, Mozilla/Firefox implemented what was once a proprietary Microsoft technology sometimes in 2003/2004, making, what was to become, Ajax cross platform, cross browser. Finally, someone came up with the term Ajax (which I initially thought referred to a Dutch soccer team), thus ushering the era of Web 2.0. Basically, Ajax allows the web page to fetch some piece of the information from the server, sparing it from having to make a full round trip. While this ability is nice and could be done previously via the use of IFRAME (with some work, of course), a new programming paradigm it does not make. So all the hype you hear about word processing/spreadsheets/etc… on the web will remain just that – a steaming pile of hype. It seems that all that was needed for the success of Ajax was a new name. Ajax, on its own, is a great technology and will become a part of a developer’s arsenal – but not much more than that.
1. Linux will make gains on the desktop or “This is the year of Linux”
The SAT exams should include this question:
“Duke Nukem Forever” is to vaporware like
“This is the year of Linux on the desktop” is to ________
The answer, of course, is hype. So why doesn’t Linux catch on, given that it’s free, etc…? Let’s start with the basics, to displace something entrenched, you must be much better, not just incrementally better. Linux is not better than XP by any stretch of imagination. So the only thing that it’s got going for it in the battle for the marketplace is the fact that it is free as in beer (regular computer users don’t care, much less understand, about free software, open source, whatever…). However, the problem is that to a regular computer user who buys a Linux PC, the OS isn’t free (just like Windows). Somewhere along the line some middleman, be it an integration house, red hat or whoever, charges for it (for support, packaging, etc…). Thus the appeal of the free OS is somewhat diminished. Many Linux proponents were hoping that the movement of corporate applications toward the web server would make the client OS irrelevant. I am afraid, that didn’t happen: all the apps that were gonna move to the web server already did so with virtually no effect on the client OS market. What’s more, some enterprises are starting to move their applications back to the client with the ClickOnce technologies that allows the application to be deployed as simply as a web app, yet retain the functionality of desktop app, similar to Google Earth. Which, of course, locks you back into Windows.
Here is the list; you have to get to the server to read the commentary about it. (not worth the read).
10. SOA
9. VOIP – This is the way we screw the phone company.
8. Apple switches to Intel
7. Firefox will take over the world
6. The case for IPv6. NOT.
5. Grid/Utility Computing
4. Fuel Cells
3. The Google/Sun event.
2. Web 2.0 aka the Coming AJAX Revolution.
1. Linux will make gains on the desktop or “This is the year of Linux”
It appears this article was auto spell-checked.
Apple switching to Intel is actually one of several hardware decisions that made me scratch my head. The others included the introduction of new chips with powerPC cores for XBox 360 and PS.
I’m not saying any of these were dumb moves, but I am very interested in what really motivated them, and how they will pan out.
“Apple switching to Intel is actually one of several hardware decisions that made me scratch my head. The others included the introduction of new chips with powerPC cores for XBox 360 and PS.”
yeah, this one has me scratching my something too. I still wonder who Intel(and the “analysts” pimping this move for the last several years) paid off to get Apple to choose them over AMD, as Intel is continuing to lag AMD on pretty much every front. Of course, the more amazing thing is that Apple is switching to x86 at all. The best that I can see from this is that Apple no longer has to support optimizations for ppc gcc code generation, and other ppc optimizations in various packages. The so-called developer claiming quicker port times are so full of —- that it scares me. If they were any good they should be able to handle endian issues with minimal(maybe a few weeks on a HUGE poorly designed/non-portable project) delays.
Immediate effect: well, I won’t be buying any more Apple hardware products based on x86 until they hit their second full ground up design. IOW no more Apples here until, oh, probably, 2007/8.
One good effect: I can, hopefully, ditch the second/3rd/4th/etc. PC(s) for running Windows/games as long as x86 powermacs(OSX) actually have drivers and support for generic/non-“standard” expansion cards(video, audio, etc)
Rest of article: I have to agree with whomever above said something along the lines that this guy is the master of pointing out the obvious, but it DID get him alot of hits…
>> I won’t be buying any more Apple hardware products based on x86<<
Any more? What Apple hardware products based on x86 have you already purchased?
A complete load of fertilizer backed by some lame ingnorant hype passed off as some kind of analysis ever.
A good example of why all top ten of the year lists compiled by completely unobjective dumbasses suck no matter what the subject.
You’re just an angry little boy because “Linux on the Desktop” was #1.
Hahahaha. I was expecting it, too.
Linux Is Poo,
It is a shame that you use that confrontational adn insulting posting style so often. You have made posts that have brought up good points in the past, and, yes, some unpopular ones, too.
However, when you start making things personal like that, it really undermines any point you were attempting to make.
I wasn’t trying to make a point … just elicit a reaction.
Thanks. 😉
Seriously man, with a screen name like yours you’re not one to talk. Especially since the parent poster didn’t say anything about Linux.
“Just an angry little boy” seems far more applicable to someone with a screen name like “Linux is Poo” than it does to the person you slandered.
I was successful in eliciting a reaction. Thank you. 🙂
You’re assuming you succeeded in making me angry, which you did not. I was simply pointing out your mistake.
You do need a hobby though, there’s more fun things to do than trolling if you’re interested.
I do have hobbies, and I am occupied for a good portion of the day. Work, school, and girlfriends don’t come cheap in the time department.
Actually the idea of Ajax being even slightly over hyped set me off. under utilized maybe.
Pure editorial drivel trying to come off as some sort of objective authoritarian scoreboard unsuitable for printing and wrapping fish.
10. Windows Vista
9. Windows Vista
8. Windows Vista
7. Windows Vista
6. Windows Vista
5. Windows Vista
4. Windows Vista
3. Windows Vista
2. Windows Vista
1. Windows Vista
Prediction: top 10 most over-hyped for 2006… SEE ABOVE-REPEAT.
Agreed.
With all that hype about Vista it’s really hard to leave it out of that list.
As a matter of fact 2005 hasn’t been a year particularly full of “Linux will dominate the world”.
s/world/desktop
IMHO this guy has got no patience and likes to misquote people to sound clever.
For example I think everyone would agree that this year has been a huge success for Firefox. This has been the year it has truly taken off. Getting 11% marketshare it’s huge, especially given the inertia he mentions. My guess is that he mixed those saying “2005 will be a great year with Firefox” with those saying “Firefox will rule” (but probably not in just one year). Plus Firefox doesn’t have to reach (near) 100% marketshare to win: everyone knows that’s impossible.
Similar stuff with AJAX, but about that I really don’t know much so I’ll pass. The fact is technologies hardly goes from 0% to 100% in one year: give it time! But this year has been a great year for AJAX as well as Firefox, imho.
The Mac stuff is even more absurd. Mac-fan referred to the megahertz myth when people would keep quoting that to compare different architecture, and it is and will always be true. But since those long gone days, Intel has kept improving its chip while IBM was stuck. So at one point Intel just started to be that much faster than PowePCs. Plus the mac did not move to Intel because Intel is better today, but because it will be better tomorrow, because they have a better roadmap, especially for laptops.
Finally there are also a few examples of ignorance. VoIP is becoming huge here in Europe.
Btw, is this guy really that important? Is he influential?
Diego
“The Mac stuff is even more absurd. Mac-fan referred to the megahertz myth when people would keep quoting that to compare different architecture, and it is and will always be true.”
Uh, no. The megahertz myth is pure marketing bulls**t, always has been.
Macs have long been twice as slow and twice as expensive as pcs. And I’m saying that as a former mac user.
$600 for a little mac box, or $600 for a pc that’s twice as fast, twice as much drive space, and comes with lcd monitor, keyboard, mouse, etc.
Sure Macs have been slowers but that has nothing to do with the megahertz. Megahertz is just one element that will give you the final speed of a computer or even of the CPU. There’s just so much more in there and it’s simply wrong to be so superficials. THAT is the megahertz myth.
That is not to say that Macs are nowadays slower than Wintel computers. Simply that their difference in megahertz is not the whole story.
Diego
Megahertz really isn’t a good way to compare speed, I believe flops (Floating Point Operations Per Second) would be more reliable although maybe still not perfect.
I guess it is just a coincidence that every single power mac I have ever owned over the years (six of them) have all been slower than a PC. In the end you get sick of being a mug on the hardware side.
“The Mac stuff is even more absurd. Mac-fan referred to the megahertz myth when people would keep quoting that to compare different architecture, and it is and will always be true.”
Uh, no. The megahertz myth is pure marketing bulls**t, always has been.
Macs have long been twice as slow and twice as expensive as pcs. And I’m saying that as a former mac user.
$600 for a little mac box, or $600 for a pc that’s twice as fast, twice as much drive space, and comes with lcd monitor, keyboard, mouse, etc.
Regardless of whether you think that Macs are overpriced, it doesn’t mean that the “megahertz myth” idea was wrong. Intel has proven with their castrated celerons, efficient centrinos, and power-hungry prescotts that megahertz can mean as much or little as a manufacturer wants it to mean. And, if you want to talk about overpriced, look no further than the Intel EE CPUs.
“And, if you want to talk about overpriced, look no further than the Intel EE CPUs.”
Except that nobody needs to buy them.
But one needs to buy Macs in order to run OS X.
This guy has no idea why VOIP is interesting. The distance of the call will no longer matter. You can place and receive unlimited calls from your line. You get multiparty calls for free. The list goes on.
He also doesn’t understand the idea of making computing a utility. The point is that you can outsource your IT department to some company that specializes in hosting computing services. Then you won’t have to deal with keeping an IT department to manage servers and handle upgrades. By centralizing IT, you take advantage of economies of scale.
It seems he never “figured out what Larry Ellison’s network computer was” either. The idea was to have a cheap internet-connected device that could run web applications. Sure enough, these days, most business software (ERP, CRM, BI, etc.) runs as web applications. The only thing Larry got wrong was what the client would look like. PCs got so cheap that a specialized network computer was not needed.
Several other points were nonissues. Did anybody important seriously say that Linux would take over the desktop this year? As I recall, in 2003, Redhat’s CEO said Linux was many years away from being a desktop contender. Likewise for fuel cells. All I’ve heard is on that front for the past several years is that the catalysts are too expensive, the distribution network isn’t there, and hydrogen storage remains a problem. I’m not sure where he’s been hearing the hype.
“This guy has no idea why VOIP is interesting. The distance of the call will no longer matter. You can place and receive unlimited calls from your line. You get multiparty calls for free. ”
I think he was addressing exactly this issue. At the moment, SBC uses a very simple formula (ok, maybe I simplified it a little too much but it does illustrate the point.) SBC profit = PSTN income + Internet income – network maintenance. Now Do you really think that SBC is going to let their PSTN income drop to 0 and not increase cost elsewhere? Do the math.
Apple went Intel; Intel will go Mac. Why not? They’d lose cr*pware like Exchange, but they’d get a solid IT foundation that would require about 20% the IT expenditures to maintain. Plus, if other companies jump on board, they’d move a lot of CPU’s. GROWTH.
IS taking over; it just takes LONGER because of intertia. I DOUBT MSFT will start upgrading IE again and suddenly make it a compelling product. Time is on Firefox’s side.
As a Mac fan, I think most of us are DISAPPOINTED by AAPL’s move to slower, more obsolete CISC processors. BUt where’s the 3 GHz G5? IBM wasn’t delivering the goods. We take a little speed-stagnation NOW, but we GET a company that comprehends that it is a chip company– not a “services” company, or a “cellphone” company.
IBM is screwed; they’ll move a huge amount of volume on the game consoles, but those are low margin chips. IBM’s chip fab plants will start to look awfully expensive to maintain and upgrade.
Ubuntu not in the list?!
How about Linus using KDE?
10. SOA
SOA requires totally rethinking common programming methods. It’ll be a slow change to an Object Orientated web (see web 2 further down)
9. VOIP
You granny can use a phone. Think she could boot an XP machine, install skype, configure the plethora of windows controls and then call somebody? Real VOIP is years and years away and the people who will provide it “for the masses” will be – the phone companies VOIP users think they are screwing over
8. Apple switches to Intel
This is good it was overhypped. The transition will be smooth and for the most part seamless. The megahertz myth still exists, but the G5 hasn’t been updated for years. What do you expect, intel to stop work to wait for IBM to get off their seats?
7. Firefox will take over the world
Not hyped enough. The sooner people get off of IE and onto _any_ alternative the better for the entire internet and content creators alike.
6. The case for IPv6. NOT.
The need does not exceed the cost
5. Grid/Utility Computing
I laugh at Sun, I laugh very hard.
4. Fuel Cells
In my MP3 player? Cute, but no thanks. Advances in component efficiency is a sooner solution to battery life.
3. The Google/Sun event.
I laugh at Sun, very hard,
2. Web 2.0 aka the Coming AJAX Revolution.
This should be number one. Nothing web2.0 exists at all today. It’s a buzz word being hijacked. This is what web2.0 actually is:
* Web Services and AJAX
* xHTML 2, validating code
* The semantic web.
True web2.0 is 10 years away
1. Linux will make gains on the desktop or “This is the year of Linux”
The more they argue against it, the further they get from it.
2. Web 2.0 aka the Coming AJAX Revolution.
This should be number one. Nothing web2.0 exists at all today. It’s a buzz word being hijacked …
Totally agree. It’s a triumph of hype over content. The fact that people get excited by AJAX shows what an empty world web development is.
I agree it was a good dose of reality, and you’ve put it even more succinctly.
You granny can use a phone. Think she could boot an XP machine, install skype, configure the plethora of windows controls and then call somebody? Real VOIP is years and years away and the people who will provide it “for the masses” will be – the phone companies VOIP users think they are screwing over
Think again. Here in Germany VOIP is already available for the masses. Internet providers like 1&1 are selling cheap flatrate accounts with VOIP-enabled routers included in the package. Users just plug in the router, plug their regular phone into the router and they’re ready to go. It’s being adopted in a big way.
The SAT exams should include this question:
“Window’s Vista” is to vaporware like
“This is the year of Linux on the desktop” is to ________
The SAT exams should include this question:
“Window’s Vista” is to vaporware like
“This is the year of Linux on the desktop” is to ________
I always thought for something to be considered Vaporware it didn’t exist, hence the term Vapor. Yet I’m posting this from a build of Vista, which runs fine. Now maybe some of the technologies in Vista can be considered Vaporware, not sure since I never saw the complete list of what was supposed to be included…but the year of Linux on the desktop is more vaporish than Vista.
Funny, I guess all the Web 2.0 apps I use on a daily basis have only fooled me into thinking they’re cool and useful. I guess all those great-looking sites with responsive interfaces are just a myth. I suppose this stuff isn’t any better than some 1998 site with blocky graphics and CGI scripts. Yeah, that’s it. Nothing’s changed. Yep.
Give me a break. The last few years have seen the rise of the blogosphere, sites like Wikipedia, and desktop-like apps and databases with awesome interfaces and public APIs. If this isn’t a new era of the Web, I don’t know what is. I sure wish we’d had this stuff ten years ago!
“Funny, I guess all the Web 2.0 apps I use on a daily basis have only fooled me into thinking they’re cool and useful. I guess all those great-looking sites with responsive interfaces are just a myth. I suppose this stuff isn’t any better than some 1998 site with blocky graphics and CGI scripts. Yeah, that’s it. Nothing’s changed. Yep.”
So you’re saying that better graphic design, better usability, the use of javascript and PHP/ASP/whatever, makes them Web 2.0?
Web 2.0 is amazing.
Finally we give up on trying to bolt everything onto a state free http request/reply and return to client-server applications.
Year of Desktop Linux:
1. Year that Linux became an appropriate OS for desktop use. Actual year depends on the source. A conservative estimate by actual Linux users is 2004.
2. Year in which significant gains in number of people using Linux for their desktop is made. Occurs every year.
3. Year that Linux overtakes Microsoft for desktop share. An imaginary strawman definition that trolls use to proclaim that it will never be the year of desktop Linux.
11.) Bloggers Conquer Journalism
We’ve been hearing constantly, mostly from slashdot, that blogging is the future and journalism will fade, blah blah blah. (I’m exaggerating in the same style he did). But so far there is just a small group of great blogs and about 10 million hordes of crappy blogs no one reads.
“10 million hordes of crappy blogs no one reads”
+1 for that one, this is very true. My blog is one of those 10 million, and I can admit it 🙂
Blogs are excellent for friends, family and small groups to keep in touch. Aside from that most bloggers aren’t good enough at journalism to replace current news outlets done by people who have the proper education and training. Most bloggers are just people doing it as a hobby, or for fun, and most of what they write shows their inexperience and their bias to the point of getting them into a lot of trouble.
Publicising amateur bloggers with big mouths is cruel, stop doing that OSNews editors 😉 .
wtf?
I guess they forgot about Windows XP 64bit edition. What a success that has been (kidding)
This is about Hype, not Success. WinXP x64 has not been hyped at all. It’s early, it has its uses, but it’s not the future of mankind.
11) Also, 64bit computing in general has been super dooper overhyped. When a Pentium M can compete with an Athlon 64, clearly 64bits doesnt mean a hell of a lot (in 2005.) Raise your hand if you now have more than 4GB of ram in your HOME SYSTEM. Outside of Opterons for servers, 64bit computing is a complete waste (in 2005)
12) Hyper Threading. HT enabled CPUS proved to be SLOWER at many games, though a little faster at LAME encoding and the like, but no where near enough to justify it’s price delta.
13) Dual Core CPUS. Wow, Awesome, i can now encode Divx in 1/2 the time, but it only cost me $500 extra for the CPU!!! and I mean 4minutes instead of 8 minutes!!! Unless you convert movies all day Dual Core is completely meaningless because of its current rediculous price. NONE OF THE DUAL CORES CAN OUTPERFORM AN ATHLON 64 – 4000 IN GAMES, NONE, NOT ONE. Dual cores probably benefit SERVERS or companies that make illegal copies of movies all day based in Taiwan.
14) DDR2 RAM. DDR2 performance gains are barely noticeable. THe DDR2 ram price fell through the floor recently because NO ONE IS BUYING IT. At it’s original price it sure as hell wasn’t worth it.
15) MS AntiSpyware Beta. Yeah, it’s a beta, and it does perform pretty damn good, but it does not remove ALTNET. ALTNET is by far the most annoying piece of spyware made. I wish the companies who profit from it all get AIDS.
Since the average motherboard only supports 4gb is that really a fair question?
Yes it is since the largest benefit of moving to a 64bit platform is the greatly increases maximum addressable ram.
Also, my point about MS ANTISPYWARE BETA, was that many people claimed it was the best antispyware program available, but the most widespread and annoying spyware, it doesn’t remove. SO why hype it up?
just how much of a percentage of the world’s computer users are “scientific users” ?
Windows XP and 2000 make use of multiple processors, but who the hell cares, they are 2D desktop program launchers. It’s all about the applications, the bulk of which, on all platforms do not take advantage of SMP , HT or Dual cores. yet Dual cores cost SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than single cores. Didn’t Folding SETI recently get closed down?
how many diseases have been cured by protein folding since 1999?
ad 11)
64 bit computing isn’t there (mostly) becouse there is little amount of 64-bit enabled software. On the linux front things are going just fine (on the operating system merits), but most people run windoze, and it’s just doesn’t there yet. 64-bit isn’t mainly about more than 4GB ram, but there are more factors – consider extra horsepower from additional registers residing on a 64-bit core – one can not just fly over this “feuture” of 64-bit computing.
ad 12)
It’s not HyperThreading that’s overhyped. It’s Intel. HT has it’s own niche, but certainly it’s not desktop. Users reporting more responsive feeling after turning HT on are simply win$ users (it’s rather scheduler “feature” than cpu design).
ad 13)
On this one you are so wrong, that i just don’t know where to begin refuting your arguments. Let’s try nontheless.
Cheapest dual core cpu from AMD can be optained (in my country) for 500$, so the difference betwenn single core and dual core simply can not be of 500$, unless signle core is for free. Moreover, cheap dual core cpu from Intel is even cheaper than that (~300$).
Some people just make more advanced use of their boxes than converting one audio file to mp3. First reason for this is there are better formats to do that (ogg). But that’s not the point. The point is, that if you are doing some rendering (which usually takes quite a few hours), than the second core can’t be overvalued. Common gain in power in such application is 98% (compared to 100% teoretical). Multicore is the way of future. If anything it’s underhyped. Some other applications: video encoding (you’ve mentioned it already), playing games with many applications running in background (ripping dvd’s etc.) without noticeble frames skipping, pick_your_own.
“NONE OF THE DUAL CORES CAN OUTPERFORM AN ATHLON 64 – 4000 IN GAMES, NONE, NOT ONE.”
Well how should i put this…It’s not the games as they are, the most important indicator of cpu capabilities. Try the same, but doing some work in background and the scoretable will revert. And one thing – the difference is only few % (becouse of slightly lower clock ratings).
ad 14)
It’s not that DDR2 is overhyped. It’s Intel…again. AMD doesn’t need such memory speed to obtain it’s goal of being valuable player on cpu market (for quite a long time it has been distinctively the winner competitor). But for Intel it makes sense to go with this memory, since their chips are very bandwidth hungry.
SOA is in some cases a solution for a problem that doesn´t exist and in others CORBA would be a much better solution and It´s really a true standard.
11.) Scientific users care.
12.) HT has a lot of detractors, some have even had reviews posted here about why HT isn’t really much benefit, if any, on average.
13.) Everyone except gamers benefit from dual core. Windows Vista, probably, will make a fair bit of use of background processes: So you’ll want a second processor or core. Call it waste, but it’s a valid way of doing things: Doing them ahead of time in the background.
15.) And none of the spyware programs remove spyaxe, which is quite annoying as the removal steps involve safe mode. What’s your point?
Spyware programs will never make up for senseless users on an insecure operating system running with far too many permissions.
“Overbsed” is OK, you can construct your own neologisms with impunity as long as other people understand what you mean.
the person who said this is hype[1. Linux will make gains on the desktop or “This is the year of Linux”]
What the crappy person!!!
Just look around. Every week you read about thousands of desktops being migrated from Windows to Linux. The Swiss, Germany, Asia, Japan, Schools everywhere, DELL now selling Linux… Its everywere. So, 2004 and 2005 have REALLY been the year of the Linux desktop (Maybe not in the USA, but we tend to be slow bastards).
Just Google around a bit, you will see what I mean… Most people in the Windows mentality only see Windows stats… Get out of the “Box” and look around…
Oh yeah, forgot about Korea and in the USA, state and local governments and also some federal governments too.
Linux is also in most of your peripherals; DSL/Cable routers, Cell phones, Cars, Mars rovers, Data centers (Ok, the last bit doesn’t really pertain to the Desktop per se`, but Linux is EVERYWHERE)…
The two most hyped things of the year are probably Microsoft Windows Vista and the Xbox 360. The Xbox 360 has already proven a flop with up to 16% of the shipped units faulty and you bet Vista will prove a flop when it comes out.
“The Xbox 360 has already proven a flop with up to 16% of the shipped units faulty” Can you post a link supporting that. And Windows Vista looks promising even in beta. Maybe you should try it. Wait, it is not available to the public yet. So I don’t think you have used it yet, meaning you don’t know what you are talking. BTW, I’m not a MS fan, but I don’t like FUD at all…
Yep, and the fact that people bought them and are turning around and selling them on E-bay is also a sign that it sucks…
“The Xbox 360 has already proven a flop with up to 16% of the shipped units faulty”
It’s what happens when a software company that produces some of the buggiest software ever written tries to take on something way outside of their expertise: console hardware design. It’s a tad bit more demanding than PDAs & phones, and the root cause(overheating) of the faults just serves to underscore this. Cooling should have been pretty high on their design specs, which, apparently, it wasn’t. (Also they should have known the worst case uses of their hardware and designed for that, after all this is equipment for lusers. I wonder if any of them have tried to place a block of ice on their equipment after reading about overheating… that would be amusing…)