When Microsoft chairman Bill Gates touts his company’s next Windows operating system, code-named Longhorn, he can barely contain his enthusiasm, adding “it will be super to get that out in the hands of our customers.” The big question is whether customers will share Gates’ enthusiasm more than a year from now.
Longhorn OS: Sure hit or longshot?
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Eugenia Loli
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Quite bloat. There was a major gap between Win 9x and Win 2k, as Windows 9x was not an usable OS. Win 2k was stable but lacked major desktop features and program compatibility, like pushing further multimedia features, specially gaming.
Now, Windows XP works fine (for those who are willing to use it. I don’t..No one takes my Linux from me) so there is no single reason for a major upgrade.
You may state: yeah sure, there is always OEM doing the work to have Windows pre-installed but.. all the deployed user base is bigger enough to be a major hassle for Microsoft to handle if their product, just like Office 2003, does not succeed. Which I truly believe it won’t.
Welcome competition, for IT’s sake.
I’m still trying to get some enthusiasm for WinXP. I doubt I ever will get any for Longhorn.
I really can’t see what new features it could contain that that would motivate the cost of licensing, testing, installation and training.
Why do people feed the trolls? There is nothing groundbreaking in Longhorn. It will be used to execute the same programs as XP. It will close some security holes but open others. 99% of users will get it only when they buy a new computer. Most corporations will be very cautious about rolling out early versions.
Sure there will be XAML and Avalon, but I doubt anyone will do much beyond coding up some deom apps…who is even left in the Windows ISV market anyway? Unless Microsoft puts this stuff deep into Office and IE, its unlikely the code will ever be used. Unless you expect Photoshop to be rewritten in XAML…
> who is even left in the Windows ISV market anyway?
Wow, that’s among the most ignorant statements I have read
on this board. Wake up!
In ten years, Windows will still be the dominant operating system, and most applications will be using XAML or its successor. Your statement is as ignorant as wondering whether win32 will ever get used since win16 is so great.
Those that think that MS/Windows is dying have a big surprise coming.
Well as long as they don’t make it illegal for me to run Linux, I don’t care what they do.
I don’t think Longhorn will produce anything earth shattering XP is really not that different than win2k and i can’t get exited about longhorn at this point. Tabbed IE is about the only feature i can say oh wow about but by then it will ahve been years over due.
“Well as long as they don’t make it illegal for me to run Linux, I don’t care what they do.”
I think making it illegal to run something that is legally free would be illegal so you have nothing to worry about
“Those that think that MS/Windows is dying have a big surprise coming.”
MS won’t die for sure, but it’s inferior software model (in comparison to open and free software) will lead it to ruin and to run for it’s pennies.
Inferior software model? Surely, if it was inferior, commercial software would not be where it is today. After all, the OSS model has been around for a looong time.
Don’t kid yourself.
The superior software model has to do with the development process and not the type of license. Only some geeks think otherwise.
Longhorn will be the default OS on a wide area of hardware vendors.. How can they not be successfull under these conditions?
x
I meant to say “array”…But you get the point..
X
@vcv: but now you can see most big companies to support it, both in terms of development process and as a way to make money. Makes one think, in the future, why should one use commercial software if you can get free quality software?
That’s the problem Microsoft has now and will have in the following years, how to compete with a product that you can download for free from internet or buy in DVD for some bucks. It’s not just a development process, it’s too a distribution process, a philosophy, a social process, whatever. I know most non-tech people don’t know what Linux or FOSS is. They don’t need to know, they will go buy a computer and they’ll have to choose from a normal PC with Linux preinstalled that costs $ and a monster highend PC with Longhorn that costs $*3.
It is impossible to separate the license from the development process. It is the license that permits the open and distributed development process, and therefore the two are inexorably linked.
Given where both linux, and MacOSX are today, and their speed of development, compared to Windows, given their limited resources, it is reasonably clear that being able to build upon the work of others,and re-use and improve others’ code is a preferable development method to a closed development method, where every new project has to be started from scratch, and centrally controlled.
However, what is a more interesting question, is whether open source would have such an advantage were there true competition in the OS market.
Matt
I’m not sure if Longhorn is everything its cracked up to be, and this is comming from a Windows person… It is, however, about a year from release, so I will hold my final judgements until then.
“Given where both linux, and MacOSX are today, and their speed of development, compared to Windows, given their limited resources,”
I agree with what you are saying but in comparison to the rest of the industry Microsoft has unlimited programming and technical resources. I don’t think it would be too far of a stretch to say that for every one person assigned to work on MacOSX or a commerical Linux distro Microsoft has 100+ developers working on Longhorn.
I meant linux/OSX’s limited resources. Maybe I didn’t structure that sentence that well …
“MS should buy Sky OS and get rid of Windows.”
Now that would be interresting. I’ve never used SkyOS but it seems to be on its way.
Given where both linux, and MacOSX are today, and their speed of development, compared to Windows, given their limited resources, it is reasonably clear that being able to build upon the work of others,and re-use and improve others’ code is a preferable development method to a closed development method, where every new project has to be started from scratch, and centrally controlled.
Well when you don’t have to worry about backward compatiblity you can speed up the developement process quite a bit(Linux, Mac OS). It also helps to have a tiny amount hardware configurations to develop for (Mac OSX). Windows has and does support an gigantic amount of hardware in a gigantic amount of configurations. Given that its amazing that they can have releases as often as they do.
Just wait till it gets released and then we can judge it on its’ merrits. Until then can we all just stop the speculation???
Please???
PC Sales are slowing down and where people are now trying to get pc’s to people they’re not running Windows due to cost restraints to provide computing to the poor. People that have Windows XP/ME/2k will not just upgrade their machine. My grandparents still have Win 98 and have not had any reason to upgrade and probably will not until the machine they use dies.
By 2006 Windows may actually trickly off store shelves just like Linux does. The only exception I have ever seen with OS upgrades is with Apple’s OS’s people cant wait for upgrades.
You are aware that linux works on more platforms, and more hardware than Windows aren’t you?
Well, it seems every company builds a driver for Windows. So, actually, the driver database was not built by Microsoft but by all the manufacturers.
Besides, GNU/Linux runs on ARM, PPC, x86, x86-64, MIPS, etc..
So, your point being?
Besides, GNU/Linux runs on ARM, PPC, x86, x86-64, MIPS, etc..
——————————————
And so could Windows if Microsoft ports it to them.
I have been testing Longhorn for almost two weeks now. I am aware that the fiinal consumer version is supposed to have some more features but if that is all I am deeply disappointed. Microsoft has been hyping Longhorn for the longest time and but this is not much more than the old Windows with all its problems and a bit of eye candy added, repackaged, and sold to the not so cerebral folks at a hefty price.
I haven’t tried Longhorn but I agree with you. It seems as though it still has the same Windows problems. The registry is a major concern (Windows always slows down – no matter how little software you install … after 2 months). I actually bought into the hype and upgraded my XP computer from a P3 to an Athlon 64 expecting to be amazed. It was faster but I wasn’t amazed.
This isn’t to say that MS isn’t doing this already but they should really sit down and talk with small business, SOHO and home users. They need to figure out what improvements they want to speed up their workflow. They seem to focus too much on TCO, administration and less on productivity side.
As an example, compare Applescript or Bash to WSH. I’ve programmed a bit, but WSH is an absolute nightmare. Its too complicated for simple tasks. The new scripting language in Longhorn is supposed to be an improvement but since they seem to be focusing on OO its making it too hard.
(Windows always slows down – no matter how little software you install … after 2 months).
riiight.. so thats why my laptop thats running windows 2k pro has not slowed at all even after having a 45 day uptime.
its all in how well you keep up with it.
how many people have PPC, ARM , Alpha and MIPS? i mean, compared to the installed base ox X86 out there? if I’m not mistaken, NT was available for Alpha, Mips and PPC.. so i doubt it’s beyond MS to port it.. it’s just a matter of demand.. i mean, i am all for linux, but if Longhorn turns out to be a secure, stable product( with critical updates distributed in a timely manner) , why should it fail? just because it’s not linux?
it’s great that we have a choice.. we can run linux, skyos, beos, even os2 if we want. people say longhorn won’t bring anything groundbreaking.. but honestly , what OS has, in the past 3 or more years? ( not minor things like spotlight and eye candy stuff like that.. serious things that change the way we use our machines . i’m not an OS buff, so i’d really like to know)
“how many people have PPC…”
Considering Mac OS X only runs on PPC, when 10.2 was out, over 14 million people reported as using Macs which means at least 14 million people are using PPC now with 10.4 out. There were a lot of switchers during the Panther days too (10.3) and people are still switching. I’m not saying it is a significant amount, or that Windows will die, I’m just saying the number is much higher than 14 million today (and thats with just the reported amount). Enough of my rambling though…
By the way, linux runs on PPC64 too
>> Wow, that’s among the most ignorant statements I have read
on this board. Wake up!
Sure Eron, as soon as you actually read posts you are replying to. I said the Windows ISV market.
How many firms are left in this market? I don’t care how many Windows boxes there are, the set of ISVs is dwindling to single digits if you want to talk about vendors of significance. Microsoft has of course killed most of them, which is why I say you will have to wait for Office/XAML if you actually want to see this code in practice.
Always great to see the old profs in the news.
On the boundless resources of Microsoft: notwithstanding all these resources, they’re years late with their next iteration and it’s going to be another year before the deliver – if they deliver…
Of course Microsoft won’t topple. Look at what Apple has gone through in the interregnum when Jobs was out. They had a catalog of mistakes and went down the list to make sure they had made every single one.
Granted, if they had not had the money they had at that time, the game would have ended there and then. But because they still had the money and Jobs came back, they were saved. It took many years [and fiercely loyal customers] but they kept going.
Microsoft has vastly more money than Apple ever had, it’s not reasonable to assume they would disappear overnight. The reality is that they are WAY too big for that to happen.
All the same, the raving about the new and upcoming system when Apple was running up to the release of Tiger I am not hearing from Longhorn.
It could be good, they have so many resources that it would be an insult if it wasn’t, but even the Windows enthusiasts aren’t that enthusiastic. Whether that is proof enough, I doubt very much, but what it certainly isn’t is a ringing endorsement and the two thumbs up from the people who want Microsoft to do well. And that is saying something as well.
When Longhorn comes out around Christmas 2006 (remember they’ve bought advertising for XP until summer of 2006) it will not have anything special. Linux, SkyOS, MacOS X etc. will probably have everything that it offers, or be very soon to offer it. However it will be a hit. Why? Because OEM’s will buy it. They have to buy it, because most people will still expect their new machine to come with Windows.
“When Longhorn comes out around Christmas 2006 it will not have anything special.”
How do you know it? Do you work at Microsoft?
This article smells like astroturf. Come on, people. Doesn’t the Maureen O’Gara saga educate at all?
1. It’s not written by a real journalist. Look at the byline: “Knowledge@Wharton”
2. It includes a quote parrotted from Microsoft itself
“Aside from the Apollo mission to the moon, Microsoft is facing the greatest software engineering feat in history.” And who says it? A LEGAL STUDIES PROF? Yeah, like he’d know.
3. Who are the sources? All people at Wharton? A real article should have three independent sources. It should also have a real writer who stands behind the work.
I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot of this kind of astroturf in the run-up to Longhorn’s release in order to generate interest and sympathy.
For the uninitiated, astroturf means a fake grass-roots campaign.
Microsoft says Longhorn will be ready by Christmas 2006, San Fransisco Chronicle
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2…
Cool article.
I love how Allchin keeps accusing Apple of copying. Hil -frickin’- larious. What an idiot. But then again, what else could he say?
I also love this,
“Whenever I see those demos, I just think, ‘Gosh, let’s get Longhorn done, ‘ ” the Microsoft chairman said in a speech at the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference in Seattle.
Gosh, I guess now that the Chief Software Architect himself has put his back into it, it *will* be delivered by 2006 holiday season. Let’s get Longhorn done, Bill!
As for ‘sure hit or longshot’, I think it will be somewhere in between. It will be in people’s homes because it’s on every PC sold, but it won’t be a hit because it lacks compelling features. It will be More Of The Same™.
(and to the fool that keeps asking people if they work at MS: no, I don’t)
I learned a leason after the WinME upgrade, I have 200 now, but as far as upgrading I don’t care. Besides Linux does fine when I am not gaming. The file system sucks, why should NTFS get fragmented when MS could have a better FS?
People have to understand that it takes time to re-write an OS from the ground up and still keep backward compatibility with old hardware/software while also pushing forward new technology/API’s (WinFX) for the future.
How long did it take Apple to go from MacOS9 to MacOSX? and they didn’t get it right the first time, only by version 10.3 did it start to take off. The original 10.0 version was nasty to work with, or have you all forgoten?
Longhorn will have lots of new systems under the hood which have been re-writen from scratch, from the kernel up to the UI. Also using new types of virtualization they can get older Win32 apps to run without a problem. They use something similer in Windows XP x64 called WOW64 (Windows On Windows 64) it’s basically a 32bit emulation layer for 32bit apps, and the performence hit isn’t even noticible from benchmarks I’ve seen.
But now they are taking it all to a more advanced stage and complicated things take more time. The new model that longhorn will take with it’s componentized SP? design and managed code will then let MS add in new features and fix any bugs faster then what it takes for them to do it today. After 2006 things should once again speed up a bit like before, with R! type upgrades which they have for Win2k3 right now to add in new features you may want, or with a new Service Pack. either way these things like WinFS will be added in later for free.
It’s looking good IMO, with all the changes under the hood, even if it doesn’t have loads of great new features, it should run better,faster and more secure. That alone is worth an upgrade.
It’ll be a marked day for Nvidia and ATI and maybe even those two lower end gfx designers (via I think and somebody else?).
All those i810 chipsets with empty AGP slots…
AC wrote:
…How long did it take Apple to go from MacOS9 to MacOSX? and they didn’t get it right the first time, only by version 10.3 did it start to take off. The original 10.0 version was nasty to work with, or have you all forgoten?
You wanna know the reason it took so much time?
CARBON. Rewriting OS X to shut up Macromedia, Adobe, Microsoft and all the other pricks who are slowly stepping backwards in the platform who demanded CARBON and cried they couldn’t or wouldn’t get the resources together to hit the market with COCOA applications and thus projected a fear that they would be losing market share unfairly against their competitors. They all sat on their asses and Apple picked up the slack.
You wanna know why Apple can rewrite (apps from purchases or internal codebase with new applications of old ideas) and even write from scratch forward thinking applications?
COCOA. Having worked at NeXT and Apple and seeing firsthand the quality 3rd party Cocoa applications that most people haven’t a clue are out there (and most lame windows applications have ripped off) it doesn’t surprise me that Apple and other 3rd party cocoa developers are starting to take the lead.
Apple gave everyone 7 years. They originally intended a 4 year transition.
Stop bitching Developers. Cocoa offers Objective-C/C/ObjC++/Java and even straight C++ interfaced with ObjC++ works just fine. Hell Cocoa Python exists as well as the OS supports Ruby, Fortran, Eiffel, and other languages utlizing non-Cocoa APIs.
What Apple is really showing that keeps their market fresh and slowly increasing is VISION.
Creative ideas and style along with shorter-developement cycles means profit.
OSS and OS X may be at odds from time to time, but more often than not they have a sound synergy.
Look at the compliance icons at the footer on every OS News page and what resources the site supports. How many of these technologies are Microsoft innovations?
There are so many wonderful technologies from OSS and BSD communities that Microsoft can no longer cast a veil over it and when poor nations (as one astute commentator posted) need TCO to be within their means, OSS fills the void.
Microsoft can subsidize until the cows come home. The Software/Hardware industries are too deep and broad to model yourself like Japan of the 80s.
I doubt that MS will release anything worthy of technical merit, and it certainly won’t work right. The money people and the American national security people and the North American media people leech their living by supporting the MS technocracy. The resource requirements are all about selling hardware and giving the kids more eye candy to play with. It will be a hit because web dev pros will be forced by the American corporate monolith to conform to the MS security model.
Those that think that MS/Windows is dying have a big surprise coming.
This is probably true, but that is not the same thing as Longhorn is going to be a success. Many people will get Longhorn when they buy a new computer for their home.
Large organization will probably order new computers with XP for quite some time. They have just upgraded and tested XP and need to get return on that investment first before they move on to the next version.
The days when companies upgraded just because there is a new version is probably over. Now, they will want to see hard facts showing that they get return on their investment before they upgrade.
My guess is that they will start upgrading around 2010 when they have to throw out their last win2k machines due to lack of support. Just like the last few remaining old NT boxes was replaced by XP or win2003 when NT4 was end of lined. So at least until then microsoft will keep its dominance.
However as time goes by, there will be more and more viable alternatives to chose from. There will be MacOS X, there will be Linux, there will be Solaris, and yet some. This means that some organization will chose non Microsoft solutions, this will probably be more common in new organizations where there is no existing IT infrastructure.
Microsft is likely to counter this by lowering their prices, or perhaps even give longhorn away for free and sell support, just like Sun does with Solaris. This means that Microsoft will have to compete on its ability to give support rather than on features in their OS. Currently support isn’t their strong side. If they don’t manage to fix that in time their markeshare will decline.
I wouldn’t be surpriced if Microsoft went down to around 70% in 5 years or so, but you are probably right Microsoft is here to stay for quite some time. However their best days are probably over.
Microsoft will get the corporate types to upgrade not on the basis of technical merit but one the basis of support contracts and “Software Assurance.” In response to the previous post, MS has already stopped free support for Win2k. The corporates can’t deal without support, so they will be forced to upgrade at some point. Given the growing time intervals between releases, they will need to upgrade before Longhorn’s successor is released.
The rise of the Chinese and Indian PC markets will be far more troubling for MS than lagging release dates and lack of killer features. These markets are challenging for MS because their consumers don’t think like American consumers and their corporates don’t purchase like American corporates. For one thing, foreign corporates are increasingly resistance to vendor lock-in, especially with an American software vendor. Whereas American consumers are willing to roll over and buy 1GB of RAM for their 3 year old computers (or buy a new PC) in order to accomodate Longhorn (as if they have no choice), foreign markets are more interested in bringing PCs to the masses at low (sub $500) price points. Foreign consumers buy consumer electronics like American’s buy auto insurance: they pay for what they need, and find the cheapest way to get their needs covered.
The American corporates will be a largely Windows-based society for the next 5-7 years, at least. Foreign corporates (especially China) will be the quickest to embrace open-source alternatives. The response of the American consumer will be quite mixed, resembling some sort of a class conflict.
Innovation is more interesting than market penetration, although they can never be considered seperately. Apple is doing a fine job, and they will continue to slowly grow their business among the American consumers, but their global appeal might be somewhat limited.
The single biggest threat to Linux right now is the Java/Mono debate. Red Hat and Novell need to put aside their differences and agree that both are necessary to the continued development of GNOME in particular. We’ll have to see how this pans out, especially with Red Hat in talks with Dell. What I can say for sure is that open source Java implementations leave a lot to be desired compared to Sun’s Java. The Mono project has a lot more momentum right now, and although Java itself is more mature than Mono, Mono is more mature than many open source Java kits. An agreement with MS about using Windows.System.Forms with Mono would be an excellent development, and that would clearly trump Java. We’ll have to see how this pans out.
So if that’s the case why is it taking so long to get longhorn out?
I must say I am looking forward to see if Longhorn fixes some stability issues. Windows XP is bad, and is getting worse for every day u use it. It has to be refomatted every 3 months.
I must say I often feel like paying Applestore a visit when using my 3,5 month old Windows:-p
And to all u Open-source fans: DON’T come talking about Linux! An OS should work right out of the box, and I find Linux hard to understand too. Dependency shit is a BAD idea. It just makes it almost impossible to install anything the package manager don’t offer, at least for those who hasn’t got a hard core computer education!