Thomas Hazlett, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, looks at the various competitive pressures (Apple, Firefox) facing Microsoft and wonders whether its era of dominance might be on the wane in an editorial at the Financial Times.
Thomas Hazlett, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, looks at the various competitive pressures (Apple, Firefox) facing Microsoft and wonders whether its era of dominance might be on the wane in an editorial at the Financial Times.
A few billion in cash and $0 inventory. Real bad indeed.
It’s just a matter of time.
This type of article is usually fun to read (but not this one – pretty dull).
MS isn’t going anywhere, however. American (and the world’s?) corporations are totally addicted to MS products. They need and want a standard, and with MS they have a familiar and trusted one.
You can’t compare Apple to Microsoft, they sell different products. Apple is a hardware company, MS sells software. Apple makes most of its money from consumers, MS caters mainly to OEM’s/businesses. Also, how is the iPod an assault on MS? The iPod is just what Apple needed for a large cash injection, and nothing more…MS could care less how many iPods Apple ships, they have no competing product (though there were rumors of one…MS would be smart to stay out of that arena though (SPOT watch anyone?)), the only decent hardware that MS makes are keyboards/mice). MS has 2 main worries right now: Google, and Mozilla. Google might actually have what it takes to steal sales from MS (well, MSN for now, but who knows what Google is cooking up); of course Mozilla has no power to do any financial damage to MS whatsoever. Terrible editorial.
I hope that we get to a point that no one company has the majority of power. Depite what doom sayers will tell you, there will be no panick, there will be no mass confusion. Linux, Mac, BeOS, eComStation, and … Windows can all live happily together. If MS is forced to make this so in order to survive, everyone will be better off.
In the best of scenarios no one person or company has majority power. Competition usually creates the best environments. All I ask is for choices I can choose from. The bad choices will die of natural causes. But there has got to be laws to stop another Microsoft from happening again.
MS has set us back about ten years from lost progess we would have had if wasn’t for their “innovation.” it’s been much easier for them to kill techology and innovation than to compete against it.
If you don’t think so, look at what happened to the computer industry after IBM was stopped from their monopolistic practices. MS is the new IBM and a world of innovation will start once MS is put in its place.
“MS isn’t going anywhere, however. American (and the world’s?) corporations are totally addicted to MS products. They need and want a standard, and with MS they have a familiar and trusted one.”
The question is: for *how long* will they remain this ‘standard’ ?
Anti-trust case of the century? This guy has obviously never heard of IBM (who’s anti-trust case rocked the company to the core…MS is doing better than ever despite their anti-trust case).
OSS is becoming more and more viable especially for the home desktop user, once its fully ready it’ll be hard for any one company to run a monopoly like MS. the steam roll pace the OSS is moving at especially at bug fixing it’ll be hard to out code and out inovate a community by any company.
anyhow i don’t expect MS to disappear anytime soon especially with the size of their bank balance.
and…the one culprit is Microsoft.
They are trying enter in every market. They used to do a desktop OS, but now they’ve a server OS (against all the unix OSs), embedded OS (against all embedded OS), games (fligth simulator), xbox (against sony), a search engine (competing with google and yahoo), etc….
Basically, they’re trying to compete with everybody. And they can’t win. Microsoft may be very powerful but there’s no way they’re going to win if they try to compete against every software company in this world. That’s why Microsoft will be toasted. In my country we use to say “Those who embraces too much, tight too few”
If Microsoft falls while personal computing remains the paradigm, then it will be replaced by another quasi-monopoly. That might be proprietary or it might be “free”. No matter.
People want their computers to look and behave as they expect, just like their cars. We don’t want to have to learn how to drive umpteen different kinds of cars, nor do we want to learn to use umpteen different kinds of computers.
Yes, there are real difference under the hoods of Windows, Linux and OSX, just as there are real differences under the hoods of Fords, Fiats, and Opels. But consumers don’t care and don’t have a reason to care. They expect their cars and their computers to behave just like their last car and computer. No surprises, in other words.
As long as hardware maker keep their driver closed M$ have the high hand. Buying a laptop with 100% suported feature is a real JOKE when you want to use something other than windows. And i wont even enter the stupid forced bundling of the OS.
Dell allows you to choose whether or not you get an OS with your laptop.
But I guess no one’s ever heard of Dell.
I just bought a laptop from Dell, and at no point was I given the option to not have an OS. Perhaps they do this for their business customers, but most definitely not consumer level; think about the support nightmare that would ensue.
This is silly. Of course MS may lose market share due to Linux and Apple products becoming more and more main stream. However, with the blazzingly slow pace that hardware support moves in the Linux world I don’t see the vast majority of people moving away from Windows soon.
The problem with OSS is that they are solving yesterday’s problems. MOST OSS is created in an attempt to emulate what is currently available and they are about 2 to 3 years behind the curve in MOST instances.
Add to that the fact that MOST OSS projects are developer centric (i.e. devs do what devs want to do) instead of customer centric and we have a major flaw in the system.
OSS is a product of the network age. Can anyone say what the next age will bring? The only constant is consumers and producers. If you take away the OSS industry’s main distribution channel (i.e. the net as we know it) then they cease to be a viable producer.
It is the companies with advertising revenue and marketing research that create the software industry’s momentum.
“Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public.”
H. L. Mencken
Basically, they’re trying to compete with everybody. And they can’t win. Microsoft may be very powerful but there’s no way they’re going to win if they try to compete against every software company in this world. That’s why Microsoft will be toasted. In my country we use to say “Those who embraces too much, tight too few”
But they don’t have to win every market they enter to be successful. They just need to dominate one of the many they are going after. As the saying goes: An offense makes a great defense.
isn’t that Microsoft will be toast in 2 years, they won’t, they’ll be arround in one form or another for a very long time indeed.
What’s interesting is that such an article can be posted and not immediatly mocked into oblivion.
I’m not expecting Microsoft to die off anytime soon, and to be perfectly honest I don’t really wan’t them too. What would be best for everyone would be a 3 way system, with Windows,Linux(+ enter your favorit *nix here), Mac OSX (Yes I know it’s unix, but it’s on power so merits a place of it’s own). Like thatno one can slam any more than 1/3 of the market at any one time, and the computing world will be a much safer (and merrier) place.
And before I go, I’m not suggesting that everycompany should be 1/3 Windows, 1/3 OSX and 1/3 Linux, since that’s obviously not feasable, but if 1/3 of companys ran Windows, 1/3 OSX and 1/3 Linux (with obvious mixes, like Linux server/MS Client etc…) then the impact of any possible attack would be minimised, and sysadmins everywhere would rejoice in the division of the crackers who can only target one platform at a time.
And how, /rant off
Nothing last forever. Sure MS will go away, eventually. Apple, and Firefox are make very small dents, I highly doubt that they will do any significant damage in the near future though.
Microsoft is one big Leviathan, with it’s tentacles wrapped around almost all aspects of computing. Microsoft will not go away any time soon, they will however go away with the end of the computer era.
“MS isn’t going anywhere, however. American (and the world’s?) corporations are totally addicted to MS products. They need and want a standard, and with MS they have a familiar and trusted one.
The question is: for *how long* will they remain this ‘standard’ ?”
I have a teenager in high school. One of the requirements for her to graduate is to pass a computer literacy test. The test? Show that you are competent in MS Word, Excel, PowerPoint, surf the web (using IE) and send and receive email from Outlook. Think they’ll disappear any time soon?
I believe MS’s days when they were at the height of their power are over. I think, as they say, they’ve peaked but they are a long way from being finished.
Microsoft has been doomed ever since GNU/Linux and Free Software (or, as they referred to it, Open Source Software) started gaining popularity in the business world. Since then things have been going in an ever-downward spiral for Microsoft.
Linux isn’t an alternative on quite a few laptops, but if you like to have a Unix laptop that has it’s hardware supported, the iBooks and Powerbooks are very attractive.
If you don’t like Mac OS X, you can run Solaris on notebooks. Check out Tadpole computers.
There are alternatives to MS Windows and Linux isn’t the only one.
Microsoft has a really good strangle on the market. Furtheremore, it is a market where the cost of mass producing the product is extremely low (prolly under a dollar with carboard and shipping considered). With standard of living across the world increasing, and along that, computer use uptake, Microsoft can easily drop the price of the retail version of Windows and Office to around $30 and completely entrench themselves forever as the operating system company and keep their profit margins. Because they have such a large marketbase, they can go to those low prices and be extremely profitable. Other people can’t. The only reason they haven’t done this is because they can still charge $200 for Windows and dominate the market. When they can’t do that, they will drop their prices worldwide to retain marketshare. Microsoft knows that they either own 90% of the market or they are irrelevant and will do anything to keep that marketshare.
I don’t know what this guy was smoking while he wrote that, beause when Ballmer became the CEO, Microsoft is doing better than before (financially wise). There was a story about Ballmer beeing “the best Wall Street guy” a while ago.
And saying Mozilla is a threat to MS… They are both free web browsers, so where’s the catch? I sure as hell haven’t heard of someone switching his OS because of a browser
Let’s not forget that Microsoft doesn’t make only OSes. Office probably generated more income then Windows.
Apple might have a chance at stealing some of Microsoft’s market in a couple of years, but they’re too closed for something like this.
Anyway, I don’t get what’s the point in writing these sorts of articles. How can you possibly assume one of the worlds biggest companies will “die” in a couple of years?
I guess the next article will be about the Saudi Arabian’s oil companies going bankrupt
yes. But they can always dip into their funds and retool into a media company or split apart into other entities. Who knows maybe one day Microsoft will be asking if you want frys with that.
I think microsoft will have growth on big markets, from big companies in the developed world.
But the rest of the developing world will turn away from them.
And saying Mozilla is a threat to MS… They are both free web browsers, so where’s the catch? I sure as hell haven’t heard of someone switching his OS because of a browser
People may not switch OS because of a browser, but needing IE compatibilty might stop people moving away from Windows, if another browser has significant market share developers are less likely to use IE-only features creating less need for IE compatibility and more opportunity for people to move away from Windows.
What is IE compatibility? Can someone give an example?
TWD: “What’s interesting is that such an article can be posted and not immediately mocked into oblivion.”
You must be very young. Predictions of Microsoft imminent collapse have been going around for at least 20 years.
If you need to get some perspective on the performance of Microsoft Vs. Apple please take a look at this yahoo graph.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=MSFT
I am using Linux. I try to advocate Linux everyday to my friends & students. I teach in a computer school in RL (before you ask, Windows XP & Office is what I teach). However, should Microsoft come to an end, i have this feeling that the Linux world will suffer too.
What I mean is that as I see it now, Linux has a target: Become better than Windows. (I have no intention to make it sound like Windows is better than Linux, i am just too tired to choose my words carefully right now) On the other hand, Microsoft has a goal of its own: stay ahead of the competition, whoever that may be. All this competition, can only be healthy for the advancement of technology. I simply dont care who develops the killer app, or the killer api or the killer framework etc, as long as all players in the game are constantly on the edge. This race to surpass the rival is whats helping Linux (or any other OS for that matter, yes, even Windows) evolve. Should Microsoft ever decline, i have this feeling that software “evolution” will slow down dramatically. It’s good to have a goal, to keep you motivated like that.
Anyway, thats all…
Disclaimer: this post is not meant to be an attack to anyone, just the thoughts of its writer, so please dont waste your time flaming him.
Force,
Sorry, your spewing just a little bit of FUD. You cannot buy a Dell laptop with out MS pre-installed. You cannot buy a PC without MS installed (except barebone systems).
For the record, you can buy servers from Dell with:
1) No OS
2) Red Hat
3) MS
Too bad Dell’s have buggy BIOS implementations.
Yes, people have been saying MS will die for ages, but for the first time there’s a reasonable chance, not of it happening, but of their market share doing something other than skyrocket (and not just because it can’t go above 100%)
ie compatibility can best be summed up as this: you can send the browser an arbitrary set of tags (closing tags all optional of course), and it will somehow figure out what to do w/ all of it and render a halfway decent page. this of course is in stark contradiction of the normal “garbage in/garbage out” paradigm that computers are so good at doing. in this sense, ie can almost be viewed as a tremendous engineering feat in that it can turn garbage into a somewhat readable page. it can also turn bad web developers into even worse ones, but they can still earn a living somehow…yet another engineering feat. bleh. 😉
>> Is Microsoft Toast ? <<
No, it’s clearly not “toast” at all – however, regards the x86 desktop, the days of there being only one, viable, relatively easy to use desktop OS for a wide range of tasks are increasingly over – a growing percentage of people are no doubt finding that it’s relatively easy to use desktop Linux for web surfing, email, listening to their mp3’s and so on etc etc etc etc etc….. – this is obviously a considerable concern to Msft – so in one sense, the stranglehold’s over.
venture capital is rare now, so they have less promising startup to buy
their stock price is on turtle mode (that remove all their lobby friend backup)
their japanese xbox tanked and with it their general prestige in all asia
the maintaining of windows legacy app and simple the windows codebase by itself
China
India
i think that since there is noting much happening in the inovation field for MS that would keep them in the dominant spot (or prove that they are the best and #1 for a reason) … oss has time to improve and cach up and then when they do … you get two products/choices … one is “free” the other is $$$. which one would you choose? they do the same just as enloop said
about the yahoo link, graph all the MSFT data show a huge diference… but closer ranges (five years) may output a nice results…
ja ja…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=MSFT
“If you need to get some perspective on the performance of Microsoft Vs. Apple please take a look at this yahoo graph.”
The problem with the graph you posted is that it only plays upon microsoft’s past. Look at this yahoo graph to see how Microsoft is currently faring against Apple:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=MSFT
I am sick of posters who blindly promote the Max/OSX as some wonderful “savior” of an OS (Not just on this board but anywhere). Like “get a mac” is THE answer to all the useability, malware and earned top position bullying of MS OS and Office products. But really don’t even know better other than they THINK it is better because they use it and it is just ‘SO wonderful and virus free’. WAKE UP MAC zealots.
The Mac is an ‘appliance’. As with most new cars, it works fine unless something breaks. Like Win XP or a Chevvy, you don’t really want to know what goes on ‘under the hood’. But it is *seriously* flawed. Worse in may ways than the Windows ‘Registry’, and at least as complex. The MacOS X configuration environment may look nice and pretty in the GUI (using it now). But under the surface OS X is the ugliest scene I have witnessed. Too many compromises of the wrong kind.
And the lowest ‘default’ security of any UNIX-related platform to ever hit the street, as well. ‘Catch-me-fool-with-me’ mode from IP to WiFi to Bluetooth. Wide-open. Only *seems* more secure because x86 critters can’t execute on PowerPC CPU.
Also the Apple UFS is seriously outdated.
The emergence of free software, open standards, democratic communication and global sharing of concepts, ideas, methods are making MS/IBM/Apple and the American think tanks and their ruling class ideas (like software patents) obsolete. The only question is: Why is the American leadership fighting this emerging trend in freedom and democracy? Apparently power and control and money are more important than social and technological progress for the many.
and the will keep dominating the scene for MANY years. just cause firefox swoops in an takes a few percentage points does not mean the gravy train has left redmond. don’t get me wrong i use gnu/linux solely and hate microsoft with a passion. however lets face the facts, they are not going anywhere and they still make loads of money. they keep upping the stakes too. now all your base is not simply your os, it is your media formats and development platform. soon it will be your media players and your tv.
Microsoft have already dropped from their mighty position. It’s just been such a slow process that nobody has noticed.
Microsoft are not in the position they were in the mid to late nineties. This is 2005. They are facing new threats. I don’t mean the kind of threats that will instantly cripple your whole business, but let’s put it this way – I’m not switching back to Windows any time soon and I doubt many other Linux converts will be. Business or otherwise. There may be the odd defection, but the main point is that Microsoft’s growth (and complete and total domination) days on the PC are over for good. The competition is not going away without human rights injustice (USPTO abuse)
No.
Whatever Microsoft goes into, loss-making or not, they will control the desktop PC and office software market for many, many years to come. I see nothing that is realistically going to take its place to take out Microsoft’s core source of funding. Hyping things like Linux on the desktop is one thing, doing it is on a whole different level. In fact, I’m convinced that the vast majority haven’t the slightest idea what would actually be required.
Author must be looking to keep busy. As far as the eye can see, Microsoft’s dominance is as tight as it has ever been.
MS is probably the only company in the world that could stop selling any products right now, keep it’s workforce and their salaries intact, and still remain in the black – due to the interest on their cash!
If that’s not crazy money, you tell me what is.
And this is the reason why MS will always succeed, in any market they want to penetrate – with their limitless supply of money, time is always on their side.
What about the Cell processor David, do you honestly expect the world and his dog to wait for Microsoft to port Windows to that?
They will dominate x86 for a long time to come, yes I agree there.
If proper marketing is conducted to consumers it can be demonstrated that MSFT isn’t necessary anymore in order for people (think people’s kids)to know computing. The internet has put pressure on OS’s to “talk” to each – x-platform like. MSFT is still fighting this tooth and nail though by using non-standards and trying to quash the use of XML for anything but their products, the abuse they did with Java in the past and so on.
The question is will companies take a chance on marketing and selling these other choices? Linux has made some strides (Xandros, Linspire pc’s on walmart.com) but until those end up on the store shelf they still remain a niche market only. Apple is trying to handle it all themselves through sales on its web site making themselves Dell like although puzzingly they still don’t do computer ads, I guess they are relying on their i-shuffle ads to draw people to the site and then click around the rest of the site that way. (sadly those ads tell you nothing about the product, just some sk8r dude jumping around).
What about the Cell processor David, do you honestly expect the world and his dog to wait for Microsoft to port Windows to that?
The cell processor is of no importance whatsoever. Unless Microsoft ports to it it’s a dead duck. x86 is the dominant architecture, and will remain so for as long as anyone can see. Intel will do anything for Microsoft to keep it that way.
There are many things that keep people using Windows, and an important one is that it does what it does better than any other alternative around today, possibly apart from Mac OS, but the Mac is not a developers system. No Linux desktop currently counts. If someone knew what was required, and created an alternative complete OS for a hypothetical cell processor system, they might have something. However, no one does which is why HP, Sun and IBM themselves continue to be scared down to their shoes of Microsoft.
I don’t like plain, raw bread, but I love toast. Maybe I’ll be able to stomach a lightly toasted Microsoft.
Yes, they do.
When I worked for Microsoft 3 years ago, the CTO at the time (John Conner…actually his name) dropped by for some employee handshaking/morale stuff; in one of the speeches he gave, he said that MS could actually not sell a single product for 4 years and still keep the entire staff on payroll just off of what MS had liquid at the time (~40bil–CASH). This was 3 years ago, undoubtedly they have even more cash now (could be offset by having more empoyees as well). FWIW, MS had ~45k fulltime employees at the time.
In Soviet Russia Microsoft toasts you!!!
M$ don’t really is “M$”. Most of it is shareholder dividend that was kept to evade tax. In fact they have a moral obligation to give it all back (not just the little one they anounced). As every theif corporation since 15 year they mixed that money with the company reserve.
Gov, the king of bandit, are doing it all the time by mixing money from different purpose as they try to cool fire all over the place.
I bought a the Mac Mini today 1.42. The little things a cool little computer. Suprisingly very cool and quiet. Garage Band has to be the coolest program I have ever used and I’ve only played with it for 15 minutes while powering down my cable modem after unconnecting it from Win XP.
Someone’s chipping into MS. If there is any consideration, the Mac Store in Detroit was packed today. Maybe it’s always like that,,,,,,,,,my first time there.
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with M$, only a problem with the ‘corporate culture’ in their upper ranks created by too much ‘personality’ being injected in by individuals with very controlling natures and questionable ethics. The vast majority of the company gets a bad rap because of a few individuals who can’t seem to behave as responsable businessmen and good citizens.
How much do you think Microsoft will resemble the current company 6 months to a year after even a half dozen of the current and well-known (by their behavior and reputations) top managment are gone?
Microsoft grip on the industry can only hold as long as they can lock users. The day other systems can get 100% compabitiblity with Windows apps with no performance issues Microsoft grip on the computer industry will fade as fast as IBM’s lost its grip on the PC industry after Compaq offered the industry 100% compability with the IBM PC. Yet MS doesn’t have anything to fall back on like IBM did so MS would simply join the grave yard with Atari and Commodore as what OEM would pay MS for Windows when they can put on Linux for free and have it act like Windows and run all Windows apps as if it was Windows.
Same with MS Office, as soon as a free Office comes along with 100% MS Office compatiblity MS Office market share will nose dive.
People are fed up with Microsoft Windows and all of its problems, including countless new viruses and spyware. Everyone I know is switching to Linux and everyone loves it. Microsoft has become obsolete. I am so glad I sold my MSFT stocks last month. If you look how Microsoft’s stock price developed over the past six months you just want to throw up: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSFT&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
My broker said that he sees MSFT hoovering between 10 and 15 by end of this year — if they are lucky…
Its 2005 — the Year of the Linux desktop! Lets all celebrate!
I have been working on this theory for a while now. Everything that happens in the software industry is really the product of basic economic laws. Lets take a short walk through history. AT&T starts writing the first Unix. At the time, the knowledge to accomplish such a feat was held by relatively few people. That caused the product, the OS, to be quite valuable. Why was the knowledge scarce? Because hardware was expensive and few people were taught programming in a formal setting. This created an opportunity for a few companies to control all software. Twenty years later, things have changed a bit. Hardware is becoming cheap and powerful. So powerful that big iron systems running Unix are hard to justify. There is a need for a PC OS. Microsoft steps in at the right place and time and Windows is born. Still, the knowledge to create software is still somewhat rare. MOst qualified people go to work at large companies. This leaves few people to make software independently. (MOst software companies had rules about writing software outside of work, like no-compete clauses)
Then something wondeful happened. The Internet was born. All of a sudden, this knowledge that was so scarce before, became free. Also, programming became a mainstream skill, taught in high schools and colleges. We now had cheap hardware, easy communications with others, and lots of people who want to program. Suddenly, it was more economical for groups of people to write their own software than to buy commercial software. The Internet made it easy to organize and standardize. I think we will start seeing less and less commercial software being written. Especially the small programs. They no longer have the value they did. The knowledge to create them is commmonplace and people no longer want to buy them. The economic pendulum has reached its farthest point far off to the commercial side of things. It is now starting to swing back toward center. Whether MS survives will depend on whether it can adapt.
TG
Ok – I’m no MS fanboi but anyone with half a brain knows that MS isn’t going anywhere.
Think about how much MS puts into user R&D and you’ll know why.
Whilst MS may be loosing the market share in the server world – be sure that they reign as kings (and will continue to do so) in the desktop market for quite some time.
Maybe they don’t have to compete in the server world – maybe they’ve done their homework and know that all those users who are hooked on stuff like Office and Windows applications will always go out and buy the latest and greatest version of Windows 200x
Milione
Am I crazy or was that article devoid of reality?
I am sure MSFT will do what it takes to stay relevant. MSFT lives in the corporate sector, the home market makes it easier for the drones to maintain compatibility with their work environment, but it’s corporate which is important. I do not see corporate leaving MSFT for Apple. Linux, maybe. iTunes be damned.
MSFT is poised to be a major force in video games and in business management software, places where Apple is nowhere to be seen, except for FileMaker, which really is a niche.
Seeing how Apple is making so much now in iTunes, they will be watching SONY, iRiver and Creative; REAL, YAHOO, AOL and Napster more than MSFT.
>Ok – I’m no MS fanboi but anyone with half a brain knows that >MS isn’t going anywhere.
>Think about how much MS puts into user R&D and you’ll know why.
Uh, this has nothing to do with MS’s R&D, there R&D is probably one of the worst in the industry per dollar spent on it. They seem to have HUGE issues with doing research and development.
What is keeping Microsoft alive is all the products they currently have customers locked into.
“there R&D is probably one of the worst in the industry per dollar spent on it.”
Care to back that up? Where do you think all of their new products come from (the ones that (according to you) “they have customers locked into” (which is such crap…anyone can change at any time, if a company wants to sell an alternate competing product badly enough, they’ll supply a migration path))? They spend in the neighborhood of 5 billion/year (which is more than the full market cap of most of their competitors) on R&D, and they get a HUGE ROI off of that money. Sounds like money well spent to me. It has everything to do with R&D, as it should with any company.
MS is not tosted, and will not be in a years and years to come. And, to be honest, I will not like to see MS down. Most people use it, because they know no alternatives, but they are people who use it, because they like it. My only wish is that MS would stop spending cash on ,,security research” made by ,,a group of well informed people”. MS clients need don’t need useless white papers, they need good solutions. I’m happy that both Apple and Linux give MS a cold feet. We need a market where competition exists, because this is the only thing that keeps companies going. IT it’s not a MS only world. Sun, Linux, IBM, Freescale, Apple, Novell.. and we still need more to balance this sector.
Following the recent Microsoft antitrust ruling that makes forced bundling of Microsoft’s Windows with hardware illegal computer manufacturers now have to offer a so called “Windows Refund” to all customers who want to buy computers without bundled software but are being charged the full price of a bundled system.
Many customer service representatives do not know about the ruling yet which means you usually have to ask to speak to the supervisor or recall and speak to a different person.
It took me several attempts but I have successfully purchased an Inspiron 9300 from DELL without any Microsoft software installed and was offered the choice between a $100 merchandise credit or a refund check. The Inspiron makes an awesome Linux notebook and, hey, $100 for calling DELL about 7-8 times is not bad…
I love this one:
This looming competitive Armageddon may well rock Microsoft to its core, it most certainly will produce a new bundle of benefits for consumers – something the “antitrust case of the century” never did.
Am I the only one who really likes MS products here? I think most of you people give them a harder time than they really deserve. Thier development tools are second to none, and thier OS really isnt as bad as it used to be either. Spyware and viruses would be a problem for linux or MacOS X if the market were as large.
I run Linux, Windows, and Mac… and really, they all feel just about the same to me nowadays. Windows is no longer technically inferior to the other alternatives. It’s not hard to run a few spyware cleansing/blocking programs, and all the good ones are free anyways.
Windows is no longer technically inferior to the other alternatives
Just curious,since when?
“Just curious,since when?”
Since pretty much everything out there “just works” on Windows. You gotta look at it from the avg (90%+ of the users out there) perspective. *nix has a long way to go man; I have yet to find a distro that hits the ground running on my system w/o any tweaks. Most people would view that as superiority.
“Also the Apple UFS is seriously outdated.”
Sorry to dissappoint you, but, your talking about HFS not UFS. And HFS is not outdated, please re-examinme your posting information.
PS: I am not a MAC user.
He’s talking about UFS. OS X supports UFS but it’s a seriously dated version of UFS. They recommend users to use HFS+.
Since pretty much everything out there “just works” on Windows.
I have same experience with Linux. It works out of the box for me. I’m currently running Slackware, Ubuntu and Debian. My girlfriend is running XP. All of them give us out-of-the-box experience.
I have yet to find a distro that hits the ground running on my system w/o any tweaks.
Windows don’t need a tweaking after installation? And how would you call setting your prefs, adding antivirus and firewall software, DVD reading software, downloading decent editor, browser, codec sets. MP3 player.
Sure, some could go for IE, WMP and Notepad.
Exactly, a savvy windows user knows they have to patch their machine / install AV software, a savvy Linux user knows they’ll have to customize their system how they like it
But joe average doesn’t care. Even if he installed an easy to use GNU/Linux distribution, he wouldn’t notice it isn’t Windows. I’m talking about web surfers here and people who just email pictures abroad and listen to music. People who use their computer as a tool and don’t care / know about looking after it.
So Linux is good in both situations. Microsoft are certainly not toat, but from my point of view, if they ever did, I wouldn’t give a damn, it’s not my problem, I’m using something else and don’t *rely* on them.
With slackware, ubuntu or debian, do you have accelerated graphics from install? If you have a wireless card, did that work without any changes? If you have a laptop, has hibernate just worked from the first time you decided you wanted to do it? Sorry, but linux is still ugly when it comes to drivers.
You might have tweaked ie and wmp to run in a cusomized way, but most users don’t, and this is a testiment to how well everything works in xp, right from the start. Speaking of which, with linux, did you have relevant codecs bundled with mplayer? How did you configure notepad by the way? I can’t even think of any options for it.
I’ve used a lot of linux distros (debian, gentoo as well as most of the commercially oriented ones), but I keep finding myself coming back to xp. Why? I identify with linux more, I like the range of programs more and the work I do would be more easily performed on a *nix box rather than sshing in using putty, so why do I keep using windows? Because windows actually works. X crashes a hell of a lot more than windows does, despite having an identical setup to my friend’s computer (which I put together and put debian on), I am unable to get my onboard audio recognized, even though it works for her, and let’s not even get into the inconsistancies between environments (kde is doing a good job to change this though).
MS is light years ahead of linux. I’m sorry about this, because I really like the ideas behind linux and a lot of the programs behind it. In practice, however, windows has always been significantly less of a hassle for me than any distribution of linux ever has.
With slackware, ubuntu or debian, do you have accelerated graphics from install?
Can’t tell, my laptop has a card that has no 3D accelleration. But my other desktop with NVidia was accelerated. You only need to apt-get one thing.
If you have a wireless card, did that work without any changes?
Yes, no changes.
If you have a laptop, has hibernate just worked from the first time you decided you wanted to do it?
I patched my kernel on Slackware. Ubuntu Hoary will come with hibernation in kernel. Can’t comment on Debian, since Sarge is far, far away..
Sorry, but linux is still ugly when it comes to drivers.
And it’s mostly not Linux fault (except for ABI/API changes, but I’m not much into kernel source so I can not comment on that, I’m realaying on other hackers opinion here). You should blame those, who makes hardware.
Speaking of which, with linux, did you have relevant codecs bundled with mplayer?
Yes, my Linux box play all the videos I could find. Bare Windows installation plays how much video types?
X crashes a hell of a lot more than windows does
For you, maybe. It’s anegdotal evidence. I’m working on Linux everyday, 8 – 19h per day. I have seen less that 2 X crashes since, I don’t know, half of year?
MS is light years ahead of linux.
I would disagree. I see nothing on my girlfriend computer, that I couldn’t do on my Linux box. Maybe you’re thinking about applications? Applications are not the OS.
windows has always been significantly less of a hassle for me
,,Less hassle” is not what I would call ,,lights ahead”.
That Microsoft’s lousy side is shown in such a light that they loose being the defacto standard. however, I am skeptical this will happen. Look at what they’ve done to thier customer base so far…..unreliable platforms, swiss cheese security, crummy customer service, and all at a price.
I do belive that Microsoft is a good company and the computing world owes them a bit of gratitiude but enough is enough.
-N
Yep, it’s here. Problem still remains the apps need to be developed to run on it for a myriad of professions.
OO is doing it for the average secretary but others are still in Alpha Development and then others that require one window manager and corresponding technologies over another.
This is a far cry from usability and unfortunately still has me booting into Windows for Desktop publishing (Indesign and nothing on Linux compares yet) and Audio (Cubase, and I don’t want to install all the crap needed for Rosegarden).
MS is light years ahead of linux.
I’d say at least the Windows GUI is lightyears behind.
Wow, that was the worst piece of marketing – I mean ‘analysis’ I’ve ever seen. It reads just like a “hard-hitting” tabloid article.
“generating robustness on pretty much the strategic polar extreme.” Comedy gold.
with butter?
or jelly?
I think USA is a lost case. M$ already dominated typical american market, who can and like to pay for proprietary software, and companies but in the rest of world, specially in third world and development countries, M$ has only a virtual monopoly because most of its market is made from pirated copies.
The problem is that M$ wants to expand your dominance and it will have to enforce DRM and anti-piracy in all countries. This is the reason why we are seeing linux grow exponentially in development countries like Brazil, China and even the old Europe.
In ten years we will see USA using Windows *horn and MacOS XX and all rest of the world using Linux.
development countries like Brazil, China and even the old Europe.
Cheers!
No, 2005 is probably a quite insignificant year of the Linux Desktop. You can probably celebrate the year of the Linux desktop many times.
The first time was when Gnome 2.0 was released. It was not very good as it lacked lots and lots of feature. But whats worh celebrating is that it mad usability cool.
Ever since then the functionality have been added, so that we now have a desktop that most people can use if only the right applications to do their work is available. This happened around Gnome 2.8.
This year Gnome 2.10 and 2.12 will offer better HAL and zero conf stuff, and better integration with other desktop environments e.g. KDE. but the user experience will probably not be much better than that of last year, as many applications not yet take full advantage of the new features
The next time to celebrate will be the introduction of the beautiful Linux desktop. That will happen when all the Cairo stuff is in place in generally available desktops.
This is probably going to happen in 1-2 years from now.
Then application developers will start to take notice and more Linux applications will be ported to Windows, making the OS irrelevant that will probably happen 3-5 years from now. By then Linux will not differ much from any other OS.
So 2010 may be the year of the Linux desktop.
Similar things will happen in KDE, but right now they are a bit behind on usability. As many new features and needed changes have been put on hold until KDE 4, we will have to wait a while until KDE will have any relevance on the Linux desktop development.
Once KDE 4 is released we will probably see the same explosive development from these very capable developers that we have seen from the Gnome camp in the past years.
And we will probably have many reasons to celebrate.
Actually, rosegarden isn’t exactly hard to install, of course depending on the distro you’re using. A simple ‘sudo apt-get install rosegarden4’ worked for Ubuntu.
And for Desktop Publishing, not many people even know about it anymore, but Pagestream has been made for linux (uses GTK2 even). http://www.grasshopperllc.com/
Since pretty much everything out there “just works” on Windows. You gotta look at it from the avg (90%+ of the users out there) perspective. *nix has a long way to go man; I have yet to find a distro that hits the ground running on my system w/o any tweaks. Most people would view that as superiority.
Okay my IBM Versatile Scroll Mouse works with Linux no problem yet Windows 2000 Pro doesn’t like the NT drivers that comes with it so the scroll feater doesn’t work and if you try the to use the scroller the cursor jumps to the corner plus every so often right clicking also sends the cursor to the corner.
For me Windows gives me nothing but trouble but every Unix/Linux box I have used has just worked almost Mac like once they are setup right.
The threat of OSS to Microsoft’s dominance of the business desktop is very small. NO one who has any control over the purchase of software for their business is going to recommend products in which the support system is based solely on message boards/email support.
The initial cost savings are always offset by the time spent trying to find solutions to problems.
If I can’t get someone on the phone and preferably someone who can speak coherent English then they’re not getting my money.
No. Why? Because almost every computer manufaturer ships with Windows.That means when someone buys a Dell, Windows, Buys a CPU at Walmart, Windows,(save for their online store) When ppl need a new computer they want somthing they’ve used before, i.e. upgrading from 98 to XP.
Second when almost every software company makes products for Windows, wheres the ensentive to switch? And switch to what for that matter? Mac is a viable choice but again, a person who has been using MS since say 95 is comfortable and wont switch because they think they know how to use Windows, all the programs they’ve baught are for Windows, all their prorifrials say compatible with Windows.Its the only major OS running on the only major chip set,(x86-64).
Microsoft toast, I think not, when a company can release four OS’s in the span of 5 yrs (98,2000,ME, XP)you know they wont be going anywhere for the time being.
The only way I can see Apple making any real market gains is if they release OSX or OSXI for the x86-64 processors.
Similar things will happen in KDE, but right now they are a bit behind on usability..
You’ve used KDE 3.4, right?
He’s a total non-techy, but it was mostly correct in it’s details. I largely doubt his conclusion; but it’s well written and pretty well supported. Great find!
Indeed. Microsoft is far from toast.
It’s only very tech interested people that will consider switching to Mac or Linux on the basis of security of technical merit. Even the Firefox browser is something poeple have to go out of their way to find and install, so as good as it is, will never be installed on the majority of machines. Most home users will continue to use the default.
The Mac could be successfully marketed to home users as a second machine which specializes in digital media. Keep your Windows computer to run Office and spyware, and use the Mac for music, video and photos.
> > Sorry, but linux is still ugly when it comes to drivers.
> And it’s mostly not Linux fault (except for ABI/API changes,
> but I’m not much into kernel source so I can not comment on
> that, I’m realaying on other hackers opinion here). You
> should blame those, who makes hardware.
Nobody wants to blame the kernel developers for bad drivers. I think everyone who is just a bit interested in the topic knows the facts. I appreciate the work they have done, and keep using Windows because it supports my hardware. I expect many others to do the same.
Hahahahahahaha. Yeah right.
XP & Bluetooth are like Windows95 and ISDN …. oooooopss, we forgot about that one.
Ah, and what about UMTS and XP. Fantastic combination too. Here is the how-to:
– Get a clean a-brand XP Notebook
– Install the software included on UMTS CD
– Reboot 4 times during install.
– Plug in UMTS card.
– Mess with settings through dialog boxes
– Reboot twice
– Dialup ….. failed
– Mess with settings through dialog boxes…
– Reboot
– Dialup …. failed …
– Mess with settings through dialog boxes …
– Reboot
– Dialup … failed …
– Call vodafone or t-mobile for support
– “Should work. Otherwise reinstall software.”
– Reinstall software
– same sequence…
– A few patches and updates later: it works. YES!
– Install one application on notebook …. Winzip or whatever … MS Office, you name it. (clean notebook, you remember?)
– Please reinstall UMTS software….. HELL!
Reconnect: not possible.
The howto for Linux:
– Add a USB adapter manually with terminal (7 steps, not easy, I admit that).
– Plug card in.
– Use terminal to configure account settings.
– Use terminal to make dialup connection. Works!
– Install 400 new applications … it still works.
Every reconnect takes about 5 minutes (a few steps, can be automated but involves some scripting).
The howto for Mac:
– Install software from Cd.
– Plug card in.
– Connect to UMTS netwerk: Works!
– Install 500 new applications: it still works.
Every reconnect: 5 seconds (one mouseclick).
If you want something that works out of the box and has a nice interface, get yourself a Mac.
Microsoft has been struggling to get their “Longhorn” version of Windows to work for the past two years while more and more Windows viruses emerge every day. At the same time everyone is switching to Linux. One might like Linux because it is more stable and secure while someone else finds it hip and cool. What matters is that this is a huge trend that will certainly affect the desktop OS market and giants like Novell are riding the wave while Microsoft has already missed it.
You’re right. I dunno of the author is a techie or not, but you can’t forecast a product’s success based on the opinions of techies. (A lot of F/OSS folks seem to have a hard time accepting that their software is a product, rather than a privileged little playground for developers. If they release it, it is a product.)
Consumers determine the success of a product. Things like technical sophistication, Gnome, KDE, etc., aren’t enough to grab the consumer. Their fine rationalizations for using Linux after someone has already switched, but they’re not compelling enough to get most people to switch in the first place.
Here’s an experiment: Stop 10 people leaving a big box store. Ask each if they’ve heard of KDE, Gnome, Linux, or the GPL. Wonder what they’d say?
I know everybody has an opinion but I’m just an ordinary PC user and I’d like to tell my experience like it is.
I bought an Athlon2800+ (HP Pavilion) PC with WinXP pre-installed. I’t didn’t seem to take too long before the problems started that people seem to take for granted. I got viruses, trojans, worms etc. (even with all the recommended antidotes), one day it just inexplicably wouldn’t boot up and HP’s help was ‘reinstall’ (they had to send me disks as the ‘recovery partition’ was unrecoverable. The system always ran slow and I was sure that I used to do simple things (like change wallpapers or surf the net) faster with Win98 on a 486…
I got mad, I knew my computer was many times more powerful than the PC’s I used to use (I hadn’t had a PC for a few years), and yet I seemed less productive than I was in the late 90’s.
I started trying out Linux and getting used to a KDE desktop with FC1 on a partition… the performance difference was immediately noticable. Not satisfied with Fedora I started trying different distro’s… I have now been using Mandrake for some months and no longer have a windows partition at all.
It was a bit of a learning curve at first but once I got used to it there was really no turning back. I wont go back to windows now and I don’t care what anyone has to say about it. My experience with XP was horrible. Oh sure it had lots of nice desirable software… if you don’t mind spending half your time waiting for things just to start up and then only to have you computer stop working for no reason one day.
I don’t know how many other’s there are out there that share my experience but I suspect there’s more than people realise – The numbers probably wont show up in official sales figures. So, this is the experience of just one ordinary user – Me.
Unless Microsoft dramatically improves the quality of its product in the very near future I think that my experience will only be replicated in the lives of countless thousands of other ordinary computer users. And judging by Microsofts track record, I don’t have a lot of faith that there will be any dramatic improvement anytime soon.
They do MACs, unless they do a PC OS X, MS doesn’t care about Apple.
http://ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons/?id=20050326
waka waka waka ^_^
You’ve used KDE 3.4, right?
Yes, I have, and its a large improvement over previous versions, but it still lags behind Gnome with respect to usability. I have high hopes for KDE 4 though. There have been a lot of interesting discussions and ideas on the KDE usability list of what to do in the future.
So I’m sure KDE will be OK in the end. But in the battle between Windows and Linux, Gnome will be the DE that counts. The secret weapon of KDE will probably not be ready in time for that battle. Anyway, as an old KDE user I’m very happy to see KDE moving in the right direction even though it will probably be Gnome that kills the dragon from Redmond.
I still haven’t finished my Microsoft Tea yet.
Yes, I have, and its a large improvement over previous versions, but it still lags behind Gnome with respect to usability.
Fair enough. As I haven’t used Gnome, and you haven’t given any specific examples of what you think the problems with KDE 3.4 are I can’t comment much. Spacial browsing in Gnome is certainly a bad idea, and I don’t think the KDE control center is nearly as messy as people make out. Both Gnome and KDE are probably better than Windows, which doesn’t set a very high standard.
I dual boot between Mac OS X 3.8 and KDE 3.4, and find KDE at least as usable as Mac OS, although Mac OS is a bit prettier. Mac OS X lacks session management and multiple workspaces for instance.
“They do MACs, unless they do a PC OS X, MS doesn’t care about Apple.”
They are a competitor because they sell an operating system, no matter what hardware its on. MS does very much care about what Apple does because with all the sh*t Windows users are going through, quite a lot are turning to OS X. It works, and it works great, and all of the linux/BSD users can be happy with it as its built on top of a BSD core with the GNU tools (GNU tools after installing XCode which is free from Apple) and a terminal. You can even log in as >console and get a standard TTY.
/me=happy Mac user
“They are a competitor because they sell an operating system, no matter what hardware its on.”
I already commented about this earlier (page 1 of the comments); Apple is not a direct competitor to Microsoft…it has been a long time since MS has even mentioned Apple as a threat b/c quite simply they aren’t. Yes, they sell an operating system, but that’s not their cash cow…they are first and foremost a hardware company that happens to bundle an OS w/ said hardware. If they were to start selling OSX (or any of their software for that matter) on x86 chips, then they would very much be a threat to MS as no doubt people would snatch it up in droves (IMO).
MS’s biggest competitor is itself; they need to focus on that first. Some other serious “threats” to MS (in no particular order) are Sun, IBM (in the services arena), Novell (though not so much anymore), and maybe Red Hat. I mention these b/c they compete w/ MS in the most lucrative sector, the business sector. Apple has virtually no foothold w/ big business compared to these companies, again negating any sort of serious competition. Contrary to what some might thing, MS doesn’t make most of it’s money in the consumer arena, it’s the huge business contracts (servers, MS Office, etc) that drive revenues over in Redmond. MS’s consulting/enterprise support division also drive a ton of sales. I don’t know if Apple even has a comparable services division to MS (or any of the other companies I mentioned) simply b/c they don’t have a noticeable business presence. Fundamentally, they are 2 completely different companies competing in different arenas. Cheers.
I have a feeling such articles in financial press appear more and more often. A very good one is a commentary in last week Barron’s (requires subscription): http://online.barrons.com/article/SB111058586661977576.html?mod=b_t…
“Creative Disruption
Don’t ignore those cheaper mousetraps
By THOMAS G. DONLAN
WHEN INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS SPEND whole careers looking at trees, it can be impossible to see a forest growing up around them. Dominant companies in many industries have managed their way to failure, often with shareholders unaware that their secure, high-quality businesses were being supplanted by new competitors.”
It mentions briefly Linux as possible disrupter of Microsoft. What’s remarkable is how similar the histories are. In each case “the unifying characteristic of commercially successful disruptive technologies is that they aren’t very good at first. If the quality and price are both low, the new technology has a chance to be adopted by new customers who can’t afford the more expensive product or don’t need the high quality already available in the marketplace.
At the same time, it helps if the companies making high-cost high quality products don’t feel it’s necessary to fight for the market threatened by the new entrants.”
Very interesting reading. May be OSnews could get permission to publish it.