How many N9’s did Nokia sell, and how many Lumias did Nokia sell? It’s an interesting thing to ponder, because estimates by Tomi T. Ahonen seem to indicate that, despite decidedly undermarketing the thing, the N9 faired considerably better in the marketplace than the Lumia did.
Like I said, Nokia is one of those companies which doesn’t hand out clear shipping or sales figures (like Apple does with its shipping figures). However, Ahonen’s estimates seem to be based on some relatively sound reasoning, and even if he’s off by large margins, it still ain’t looking good for Nokia.
The first funny bit is that Windows Mobile (you know, the old and versatile girl) still appears to be faring much better than Windows Phone 7. About 890000 devices running Windows Mobile were sold in the US last quarter (according to Nielssen’s figures on Q4), compared to 520000 devices running Windows Phone 7. This is most likely largely a corporate thing, but still – it’s pretty impressive.
Anywho, according to Ahonen’s math and estimates, Nokia sold 600000 Lumia’s last quarter (Q4). Nokia’s biggest and most important product launch in history, and it only sold 600000 of them. That’s not good. The Nokia N9, which saw a far smaller product launch than the Lumia (no TV advertisements, no Microsoft-sponsored marketing campaign, only launched in small and/or less wealthy countries), saw between 1.5 and 2.0 million sales in Q4.
Again – these are estimates, so be on your toes. However, they’re so wide apart that all parties have to be off by wide margines before this turns into something that looks good for Nokia.
Image via Shutterstock
In other words, the Nokia N9 outsold the Lumia by 3 to 1 – even though the N9 is considerably more expensive. I’m starting to see why Elop was trying so hard to turn the N9 into a failure. As a Microsoft exec, he knew that the device and its MeeGo operating system were better than he let on. A good selling N9 was not part of his plan – which is to deliver Nokia’s smartphone business into Microsoft’s arms. Run it into the ground, and make it as cheap as possible.
There’s still no hard evidence for all this, but it’s looking less and less like a crazy theory. I try to stay clear from predictions as much as possible (mostly because I’m smart enough to realise I’m an idiot), but it’s pretty clear Nokia’s smartphone business is going to be bought by Microsoft this year. This is worthy of the silver screen.
People know icons from their computers and they see them daily in ads. Tiles are different and people don’t seem to like change (just ask Desktop Linux)
But sure, MS could buy Nokias smartphone business for cheap and once the Windows 8 tiles halo effect sets in sell a few WPhones, but WP is still doomed IMO.
What was wrong with Android again?
Android stinks.
As far as the article goes. Hahahaha!
Take that, Elop!
Nokia did not need Android, Windows Phone or anything: They already had their Meego-Harmattan and that would have been enough.
Let’s hope (though I really think this will never happen) Elop will change his mind and reconsider moving Meego to the upstream.
Better hope for Elop to be kicked out of Nokia first. I doubt he’ll ever change his mind.
Nominally Nokia was looking for a differentiator to distinguish their products from the others in the marketplace and thus increase sales by virtue of that distinctiveness. That was the explanation given for why they wouldn’t go with Android.
There was an article in Forbes awhile back saying that Nokia wanted a deal with Google that gave them advantages that other handset makers didn’t have and Google told them no. This was spun as Google telling them they couldn’t license Android. Obviously that is incorrect. Maybe they couldn’t license the Android logo/name, but the code is freely downloadable and there are many forks of it already.
So now they have a phone OS that they have special rights to that other handset makers don’t.
But wait! Wasn’t that going to be the problem that would kill Android when Google bid for Motorola? o-:)
Except that they failed to get the main element they desperately needed – differentiating factor. There is none.(Unfortunately hardware is not enough for a distinctive feel)
I like Nokia Lumia’s hardware, but buying it only because it has a polycarbonate unibody?
Maybe Moto will become the vanilla ODM? And everyone else will have the ability to differentiate in software as well as hardware.
Since Qt is running on Android they already had a way to distinguish their products from the others, offer a upgrade-path from Symbian to Android via Qt and combine both worlds (existing Android applications and Symbian/Qt applications) in there marketplace.
I have just a question: if this is true, why the Nokia board simply doesn’t force mr. Elop to resign?
This will be in the Nokia (and its shareholders) own interests!
Maybe they really want to be bought by Microsoft, and Elop is actually moving towards that path.
It is too early. It is like changing football coach twice in a month. It make no sense. There is no way he would have time to implement his now system in that time frame. So it is actually expected that the team will lose more often for a while until the new system is implemented.
As for NOKIA, I think they are doomed and wont get the top spot back, ever. Unless Elop really mess up even more, I don’t think NOKIA board will go the way of HP. But yea, now that Google own Motorola and Apple, well, Apple, Microsoft may -need- to buy NOKIA to stay relevant. Why not T-Mobile or Sprint while they are at it.
I agree that it is too early to dump him. And I don’t even like him. (;
Nokia did a great job bringing a handset to market in 6 months. And they are still pumping out new models.
I disagree that there is any reason for them, RIM, Sprint, or anyone else to be bought in order for the OS to succeed. Just the opposite, Apple and RIM notwithstanding.
If the OS is capable of succeeding then it doesn’t need its own carrier, handset maker or other support system to become successful. It might, or might not, acquire those things through success but not as a prerequisite to success.
A synergy comes into being when two competencies catalyze each other. Not when a rocket pulls a rock into orbit.
Did you read linked article?
This linked article suggest that Nokia could get + cash in Q4 instead of losses.
Nokia panicked. It had a R&D budget that was 5 times that of apple on year and still loosing smarphone market share.
The company just did not have the faith, budget and maybe even the stomach anymore.
Microsoft was probably their best bet to continue business as usual. It already gave them $1 billion last year and $250 million not long ago. They’re so encumbered by MS right now that quitting the partnership might very well bankrupt them. There just isn’t any turning back now.
I was sceptical but I think they will 2012 Tango release with the Nokia Windows 7 lower-priced budget smartphones will push up sales.
Bad choices shouldn’t cause apathy. They should dump this MS partnership as soon as possible, but their slowness to react will only sink them further.
In all fairness, you can’t really compare Apple’s R&D with anyone else’s. It ridiculously low and I’m pretty sure that software development isn’t in R&D department.
Also, hardware R&D is multiple times more expensive than anything in the software domain.
It do not matter if Nokia is getting tones of gold from MS. Only thing that matter if Nokia can make profit again.
Linked article suggest that Nokia could made profit with MeeGo. If MeeGo could be allowed to be sold in every country Lumia could.
I have read that Nokia did make a profit on mobile phones last year. Apparently they just lost 1 billion EUR on non mobile activities. This is from the investors analysis of the public numbers, just like the N9 vs Lumia numbers are.
Several possibilities. Disillusioned, or interested in short turn money from MS and don’t care about Nokia’s future. In either case, Nokia suffers.
Edited 2012-02-01 23:43 UTC
Because the decision to switch to Windows Phone was taken in 2010 before hiring Elop, by the board. Think about it, why would Nokia hire the boss of the business division at Microsoft, someone who has zero experience in running a hardware company or a mobile business ? There can be only one reason, they had already decided to go with windows phone at that time, and they needed someone to work the deal with Microsoft, that someone was Elop.
To remove Elop and change Nokia’s strategy (once again) it would require for the board to acknowledge its own mistakes, which is something very difficult for most humans. They are likely to keep trying with the current strategy until the shareholders meeting later that year, where the board will sacrifice Elop to save their ass and turn themselves to be an Android OEM shop.
Nokia also bought Trolltech in 2008. they are like a chicken without a head, running in all directions. One step forward, 2 steps backward. WTF did they expect from Windows Phone? They’ve been competing with WP since a decade or so and consistently kicking its ass over and over again. Then all of a sudden, they switch gears and embrace the looser strategy. What are they thinking?
That is an option, however unlikely. More like they were entertaining the idea that a former MS exec can get a better deal out of US software makers, than a finnish guy.
Microsoft did offer them a better deal(judging by the financials), no matter what you say.
But again linked article do not compare MS deal to ANYONES deal.
It compare MS solution with Nokia solution. UNUSED Nokia solution. UNEXPLOITED Nokia solution. BANNED Nokia solution.
And state that with Nokia own solution, Nokia could get profits from Q4.
Now talk about Nokia’s decisions.
They have no need for Android OEM shop, while their own Harmattan was a success. They just need some sanity first.
Because:
1) Elop is just executing their plan.
2) They bet on huge personal compensations from Microsoft when they finally buy the shop.
It would be nice if you put commas in the numbers. Its much easier to tell that 600,000 is six hundred thousand by quickly looking at the number than it is 600000.
“,” is a local(ized) standard. It would make things worst for some region using “,” instead of “.” for decimal. Using ” ” seem to cause less problems. But again, it is still not a global standard.
USE ” ” instead!
600 000 is very readable. And no one can miss its meaning no mater what local custom is.
For me “600,000” means six hundred.
I think apostrophes are more universal – 600’000 will never be confused with six hundred.
I think we can all agree that the point is any of those would be better than 600000.
Nope. 0x927C0 would be much easier to read.
Or we might just use SI prefixes (in this case, 600 kiloLumias) which are a global standard / that’s what those prefixes are for! ;p
(OK, but seriously, 600k would seem decent)
The Beast will overcome all obstacles. After all, they booted Sony from 1st place in the gaming market while struggling with faulty hardware design. Even with the massive competition, I have no worry for Nokia either.
I just wished they stop with the creepy “phone parties” and other assorted “events”. What does this stuff have to do with phones?
PS: The model still sucks (the carrier being the customer). And I still will want a Samsung Focus S.
Sony pretty much gifted MS the lead in the gaming market.
Firstly they waited a whole year after the XBox 360 had launched to release the PS3. Secondly the price of the PS3 was absurdly high when compared to the 360.
Given those factors it was virtually impossible for MS to fail overhaul Sony, dodgy hardware or not.
Had the PS3 come out 6 months earlier and much closer in price to the 360 the story would probably have been very different.
Sony simply decided to trade some of Playstation market share to make sure that Bluray wins over HD-DVD. And it worked.
While the market has reacted enthusiastically to the recent announcement of Nokia’s Lumia sales, it has never been clear exactly what Nokia’s expectation have been, and if Stephen Elop’s pet project has met them.
Speaking to the YLE talk show A-plus on Wednesday evening Jorma Ollila, Chairman of the Nokia Board of Directors, said that analyst and consumer response to Nokia’s first Windows-based smartphone has been even better than expected.
This is good news for Stephen Elop, and bad news for his critics, who are hoping for the board to eject him due their perception of a failed strategy.
http://wmpoweruser.com/nokia-chairman-consumer-reaction-to-nokia-wi…
What else can he tell?
He is responsive for stock prices, is not he? Can he risk showing internal Nokia struggles publicly?
Yeah, the author has no obvious bias at all. He does all sorts of voodoo to arrive at Lumia numbers, then practically lifts unsourced numbers from a Symbian fan site. Uh, yeah.
Estimates of N9 sales before Q4 was 1,4 mln smartphones.
And guess WHY we have to do voodoo to get Nokia N9 sales?
Wow… who would have guessed that!
Oh wait… how about anyone that understands the difference between a low end phone and a high end phone?
When the Lumia 900 comes out let me know what the sales figures are like…. that is some sweet hardware with a great OS on it.
I’m sorry, do you live in a country where Lumia 800 isn’t available?
It was released today in Norway. The N9 has been on the market longer, so the comparison is a bit flawed. (Is the 800 available in the US yet?)
Comparison is not flawed.
To enumarate just few things:
* Lumia was realesed FIRST in countries NOKIA heavy.
* Lumia got heavy ad. from NOKIA, MS, and Carriers.
* Lumia was pushed as flag product of Nokia.
Non of that can be said of N9.
So if Nokia can not push its flag product with favorable treatment, against its now “niche, research” product. Than maybe wrong smartphone is flag product, don’t you think??
Most N9 was sold in China where it apparently received some amount of advertisement. In short N9 was almost hidden on markets where Lumia was released, but did have a few BIG markets where Lumia was not pushed that much (if at all, anyone seen a Lumia in China?)
Looks like I made the mistake of supporting Windows Phone 7.
I’m a real gadget whore and I actually own both of them. I got the Lumia 800 for Christmas from my parents so at least I didn’t have to pay for it. I love them both. Windows Mobile 7 is turning out to be one heck of a phone os. I enjoy using it more then my sold iPhone. However the N9 is one awesome phone, my stomach actually gets upset when I think about Nokia discontinuing Meegos. They had created what I thought to be a true iPhone killer. The phone is only a single core 1 ghz cpu and it out performs ever phone that I have put up against it. The OS is so innovative and a real pleasure owning, still after 4 months of ownership I am still finding new things about it that make me smile. Did you know you can install normal linux Deb files. I’m actually running a LAMP development server on it. How friggen outlandish is that. I’m really hoping this is not the last we’ll see of Meegos. Maybe due to the success Nokia will introduce a few more. Another gem that Nokia has just released is the 701 with Symbian Belle. If you thought Samsung had great screens the 701 has the brightest screen in the industry. Breathtaking comes to mind and I heard they are going to be using that screen in some upcoming Windows phones. I really hope Nokia gets out of rut they are in as I still really like their phones. Since the beginning I have always had a Nokia phone in my geek arsenal, most of them are indestructible and last a very long time. I was enjoying smart phones from Nokia with their Communicator series way before Apple even came out with the iPod. Sending faxes and surfing on BBS’s.
Every time there was a Nokia Lumia ad in Facebook I deleted it. I wonder how many people did that
There is no room for pride on bussines, Samsung swallowed its pride and took Android over bada, results? Samsung grows big in the smart phone market.
RIM, says no to Android, results? big crisis.
Nokia says no to Android, results? I would be surprised is the company last for another two years.
HP says no to Android, results? You know the results better than anyone.
HTC, Motorola says yes to Android, results? They are better positioned that the other mentioned in the smart phone area.
If Nokia would have choosed Android and emerge with a great hardware and reliable updates, it would be the king of smarth phones.
There is still room for improvement in the Android eco system, it needs better and smoother experience, the vendor that can acomplish that part it will be definitively the new king a long with Apple.
Android is not the final chapter in computing.
Bugger Android. Bring back Meego and keep it current!
They can’t: Most talents have left the company already. The burning platform is underwater now, touching ground soon.
No, they still own and develop Qt.
That is a quite… relative thing to say. Motorola generally struggles for the last few years with profitability, their share is sinking, they withdrew from most markets they had presence in.
And they probably forced Google a bit into buying them for such high price (Moto CEO publicly wondered if they should start suing other Android makers over patents, or maybe adopt WP7, when talks with Google were surely ongoing)
Elop expects Nokia to suffer during the “transition”. Of course, the “transition” he is talking about is the transition to Microsoft.
Elop has a good plan. It all makes sense from his perspective. Nokia’s administrators are idiots so why would Elop not abuse them? We know that Nokia is run by idiots since a long time. If Elop didn’t come in to abuse them, someone else would have done it.
This is the very same guy that just two days before the February 11 announcement of the Nokia/Microsoft partnership wrote (at the very end of his blog post at http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/why-nokia-os-s…):
“But do not expect Nokia to announce it is abandoning Symbian (and/or MeeGo) in favor of Phone 7 or Android. That won’t happen.”
How could anyone with “so much insight” be so very wrong about a major announcement that was just two days way? And, more to the point: why should anyone take him seriously after that?
That said, I think that Lumia is sort of okay, but I’d rather take the N9 without thinking twice about it! 😉
RT.
Ahonen though that “couldn’t happen” because he though that would be horribly, obviously stupid. And everything since then proved him right.
He wasn’t wrong; Elop and the Nokia board have been wrong since that fateful decision. Tomi is a far better analyst than any other tech “pundit” at the Verge, Engadget, Techcrunch et al., all those who praised a WP7 Nokia and now fail to understand why it fails so badly while it was clear from the beginning.
The N9 did not enter here without marketing, I was actually kind of surprised of the amount all things considered.
There was quite an amount of web adds, and there was some in various printed media. They was also offered as prize in some contests/lotteries. One national radio station offered them as prize in their Advent calendar competition.
And there was TV commercials, not sure if the where on the most popular mainstream channels(Can’t remember seeing any, men they may have been aired at different times). But they where shown on some of the lesser ones, like Discovery where I saw several variants.
I also went to a shop to look at it right after launch, and the sales clerk clearly was fresh out of some Nokia event. As he was quite hyped about it, and not some geeky type.
C’mon
The N9 has been selling in 37 countries and Lumia has been sold in 6 countries for six weeks Q4 2011. Is this really a fare comparison?
And as the N9 and the Lumia 800 looks almost identical (at least to regular consumers), hom many bought the N9 bacuse it ran Meego?? Really??
I bet that the majority of N9 customers bought it because:
1. Its a smartphone
2. Its a beautiful smartphone
3. Its a Nokia
All those three fits the Lumia 800 aswell. If all N9 shipped to stores were WP7 phone then the 100.000 harcore Meego Nerds would have bought something else. But the phones would have been sold anyway. We at these sites and forum are putting far to much weight into which OS the Phones are running! The regular consumers doesn’t know (or care) if they get WP7, Meego or Android. As loong as its a nice smartphone and they can get to Mail, Web and Facebook – they are happy.
BrunoH: Obviously you don’t live in one of the launch countries. Lumia ads were omnipresent: At least one spot in each TV ad block, huge posters everywhere, booths in malls, shopping streets, train stations.
Also make sure to look at the right numbers, like population and worth. Number of countries is meaningless if one phone is introduced in small and poor countries only, whereas the other one sees a heavy launch in the biggest and most wealthy countries.
Edit: And actually huge advertisement effort is ongoing.
Edited 2012-02-02 09:36 UTC
Perhaps you should ask, how many bought the N9 because it did not run WindowsMobile?
After all, historically Win phones does not have a stellar reputation even among regular users.
Historically Windows does not have a stellar reputation (especially among regular users).
Many bought it precisely because it runs Harmattan. I’m not sure you can measure the exact percentage though.
I really wanted an N9. I wanted one so bad that I was going to buy my first new phone since 2003. That’s right, I’m still using my 2003 Motorola phone. Hey, it does everything I need. I refuse to buy any Windows or Android phone. And I’m just not going to pay a premium for the Apple anything. I’m still hoping that the Nokia investors will get wise to Elop and throw him out on his butt before Microsoft takes completely over and get the N9 into the eagerly awaiting hands of people like me. And if not, I’m sure there will be another Linux based phone (I know Android is based on Linux sort of.) at some point. Until then… I’m holding out for MeeGo and the N9! I want my… I want my… I want my Nokia N9.
Let’s hope Tizen devices will appear.
If things are really like that, it should not be long until some other handset maker picks up MeeGo and does a phone.
Meego is dead as a project. There are continuations of sorts: Tizen (corporate backed) and Mer (community developed).
For Nokia it would be wise to have 2 operating systems. In this case WindowsPhone and Meego. Look at Samsung. Android is of course very important for them, but they don’t want to have all eggs in one basket. Enter: Tizen and WindowsPhone. Plus, that way they can cater more market segments.
WindowsPhone was a good choice for Nokia. The Android space was already taken by Samsung and others, iOS is of course exclusively Apple, BlackBerry is a sinking ship, which leaves WindowsPhone as the only alternative.
Plus: Windows is still King in the corporate world. If Microsoft manages to make phones & tablets that are sexy and integrate well with their Outlook, Office, Sharepoint etc. than they have a winner. Sysadmins will love it. But Nokia will need either some sort of exclusivity from Microsoft or a special Nokia Look&Feel WindowsPhone, in order to differentiate from the competition. I don’t see that happening yet……So that is a setback.
As I said, there a plenty Android phones now. So for a 2nd OS, Meego would be a great choice. Or actually, ANY full Linux OS. Why not partner with Ubuntu? The question would then of course be if Microsoft will let Nokia offer both WindowsPhone devices AND Linux devices ?
Edited 2012-02-02 10:13 UTC
Windows Phone 7.5 is not corporate-friendly at all. It’s a 100% consumer phone operating system.
You cannot even get a full backup of a phone running WP7! For the things you want to back up, you need to use several different tools and services. You cannot backup SMSs, for instance. Corporate nightmare.
I believe that the investment community expected Nokia to add Android to their Qt-centric Symbian / MeeGo portfolio a year ago (given that Android can be adapted to support Qt applications), and the rising stock prices before the Feb 11 announcement indicates a majority consensus that this strategy could have worked.
Imagine a Nokia with Symbian at the low end, Android in the mainstream, and MeeGo at the high end, with their own app store offering a range of apps that run in all 3 environments but with specialty apps that exploit each platform.
The drubbing the stock has taken since indicates the low confidence in the current Windows-centric strategy. The accelerated collapse of Symbian sales and slim Windows sales over the past year confirm the consensus position IMHO.
Time will tell if the strategy is a long-term win, but I’m still very sceptical.
Even WP7 as additional revenue stream could have made sense: Hardware and software are fixed, so R&D costs are minimal. You’d only spend a few bucks on design. Microsoft pays the advertisement. Easy drive-by income. You just don’t make it your only bet. Also no need to jump on the Android band wagon I’d say.
I agree that WinP7 would make some sense as an additional platform. The appeal of Android (other than its wild success) is its ability to run Qt apps from the other platforms, at least to some extent, which WinP7 will never do.
But WinP7 as an additional platform makes FAR more sense than Nokia’s “all in” strategy.
WP7 is not Nokia’s only platform. It replaces Symbian and Harmattan.
Nokia is currently making the money on lower end.
Also refer to the “Qt for next billion” comms out there, and do the math. In a way, WP is an additional, yet high priority platform.
Does this ‘Qt for the next billion’ thing sport all the nicities that reviewers (and apparently also users) so much like about the N9?
That is not something that has been communicated in public.
I was referring to smartphone platforms.
What does “smartphone platform” mean these days?
I was using Nokia’s definition from their website.
It makes my heart ache when I see Nokia speeding up the LG highway to oblivion.
I simply find it hard to believe those numbers, at least under similar contexts. But even if they were true, how relevant are they?
The N9 is present in more countries (China itself could account for more than half of the sales) and was on the shelves longer.
Really a waste of time, all this irrelevant speculation.
And no, Meego couldn’t be Nokia salvation. It has a lot of great ideas and it’s beautiful, but it’s still heavily WIP and they didn’t have the time, the resources, and the overall competence.
Just look at how MS is struggling, with lots more resources, experience, and better developer relations. Saying that Nokia had a killer OS in Meego is just wishful thinking.
They had time and resources. They didn’t have patience and honesty to refuse to accept MS bribes.
N9 has been out for quite a while. Phone addicts from everywhere were able to buy up unlocked versions from Amazon and places like that. This is a true linux phone of same vein as n900 so this phone definitely had a following. The Lumia’s haven’t been out long at all, lots of people are deciding to skip first generation and looking for something more akin to specs of N9 which for us stateside, closest thing will be Lumia on AT&T in April. I have been considering Lumia 710 on T-Mobile, but also kind of waiting for announcements.
Yes Android is “Linux”, but maemo/meego has been able to run true native linux applications for a long time. Had firefox running on it years ago. Android have to use java bootloader, and then use NDK to load C++ libraries, doable but a royal pain. Kind of sucks that Android won out on phone based linux front.
There is no need for Microsoft to buy Nokia : they already control its future. That’s kind of the same of owning it, without the cost, nor the risk.
Let’s be clear also that the root of the evil is not (just) Steven Elop, but the Nokia Board itself, which selected and protect Steven Elop. The members of the board themselves where selected by Microsoft. So Elop does not need to worry about its action being in the best interest of Microsoft, and against the interest of Nokia : he is protected in his mission by the board.
Maybe they don’t own smartphone market, but Nokia is still #1 mobile phone producer on the planet, known for their quality, durability and batteries.
They are sturggling selling that MS product that noone wants, should’ve continued with Meego/Tizen whatever and in fact they’re porting it to their low end phones.
If WP7.5 (later W8) don’t take up, Nokia won’t either although they will probably capture most of the WP7 market share and still do better just because it’s Nokia, and people are used to getting a quality piece of plastic from them (N9 popularity prooves the software problem though).