Submitted by As we all know by now, netbooks are the latest craze in the computing world. Small notebooks, perfect for on the go, and relatively cheap. The interesting thing is that these netbooks are often offered with Linux pre-installed instead of Windows, and this prompts many to believe that it is the netbook niche where Linux will gain its first solid foothold among the general populace. “It does a lot to level the playing field. In fact, Linux looks to be quick out of the gate,” said Jay Lyman, analyst with the 451 Group. However – is that really happening?
Personally, I am not so convinced that the netbook market will be a Linux stronghold. This isn’t due to Linux not being ready or anything – in fact, for a netbook, Linux is ‘readier’ than Windows, if you ask me. As I explained in the review of the Acer Aspire One, it can run a full Linux installation with Compiz Fusion running smoothly, playing Flash and video files without a single hitch. Windows XP, on the other hand, would need more RAM, special tweaks to make it work properly on the solid state drive, and you won’t get a hardware accelerated desktop.
It is not the readiness that makes me doubt the stronghold assertion. What does make me doubt is opening my eyes and looking at the reality of the internets. What are the most popular threads on netbook community websites? What requests are most often made? Which blog posts get the most comments? Which howtos and guides are read the most?
Exactly, the ones that detail how to install Windows XP on netbooks that ship with Linux (and threads that detail with issues concerning XP after installation). Like this one. Or this one. Or this one. Oh, and over here. And so on, and so forth.
I stumbled upon all of these while finding ways to wreck my One doing research for the One review, and it quickly dawned on me. A lot of people keep saying that Microsoft’s sales figures are misleading since you never know how many PCs pre-installed with Windows are in fact turned into Linux machines (or Vista into XP). I think the situation in the netbook market is the exact opposite: I firmly believe that many, many of the Linux netbooks are in fact turned into Windows XP netbooks. In other words, it is hard to say just how many netbooks are out there running Linux.
In case you are wondering – yes, my One still runs Linux, and will continue to do so. I mean, fat32 just to get acceptable performance out of the SSD drive? And no wobbly windows? You must be kidding me.
I actually deleted the last line of this item. It read: “How am I supposed to get chicks when my windows don’t wobble?”
I was afraid of people claiming unprofessional behaviour.
I always get knocked for lack of transparency.
“It does a lot to level the playing field. In fact, Linux looks to be quick out of the gate,”
– said Jay Lyman
Out of the gate? Nah, the folks at the track betting there paycheques are just finally realizing that the horse is on the track nose and nose with the other horses; and has been the last many laps.
Religion aside, it really is the better software choice for size of machine it’s being pushed through. It will be interesting to see what competition does in this space and how quickly the Eee friendly third party distros will include installs for the other blocks of hardware.
Interesting.
Are you aware of the emerging evidence that Linux versions of these netbooks are out-selling Windows versions?
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/pc
In some recent news about netbooks it transpired that one model (I think it was an EEEPC) had been produced 50% Linux and 50% Windows, and the Linux versions had sold out but there were still plenty of Windows machines available.
For the significant majority of machines sold the OS will not be changed for the life of the machine. Most people do not have the ability or the confidence to install a different OS.
PS: As far as more general machines go, this is an interesting development:
http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/08/11/select-dell-notebooks-now-…
Edited 2008-08-13 12:40 UTC
hell, most will ask a geek friend or relative to run the recovery media that came with the machine. or even pay the company that made it or someone that work where they got it to do the same.
these locked down mini-laptops are in a way exactly the same as the original iphone. a friendly set of icons on the front, ready to be used.
want somewhere safe to store your work files? get a memory card to stick and put it in there, end of story.
its kinda like one have come full circle with the memory cards acting as the floppy and the mini-laptop taking over for the C64…
but then i have long been voicing the opinion that many would be more happy typewriter with a net connection then a full blown computer. the modern computer just have to many hidden tasks and complexity. and that its connected to a whole world of other, equally complex machines dont help.
This is exactly why I believe sales figures really never tell the story of how many users are using any platform. There’s a couple reasons I can think of that people would buy the Linux version:
* For Linux, obviously
* You can sometimes get more bang for the buck buying the Linux models, case in point being the EEE PC 901. The XP version comes with a total of 12gb of SSD, the Linux version is 20gb total. That’s 8 more gb for the same price. Many people will simply see that and won’t look at the operating system it’s running because honestly, consumers for the most part don’t care. And, as long as the provided Linux does everything they need, they probably won’t feel the need to change it. A lot of people are looking at these not as computers, but as appliances like their cel phones. If you ask an ordinary consumer what operating system their cel phone’s running, they wouldn’t be able to tell you. I think in a lot of cases the same is beginning to apply to these netbooks.
Still, there’s no way of knowing how many users install Windows on their netbook, or pay someone to do it. I think that the netbook market may be one area where Linux may eventually gain a hold, but it won’t be desktop linux that gets it, and that’s an important distinction. The consumer who’s seeing Linux is not seeing SuSE, Ubuntu, or Fedora, even if Linpus (yick, what a name) is based on Fedora. The end users see the desktop, and it’s not Fedora’s desktop. It’s not even Linpus’s desktop. It’s a manufacturer-customized interface, with each netbook being different. This, in my mind, contributes to the appliance feel for most people rather than the computer feel.
So, is Linux gaining a foothold here? Possibly. But due to the nature of these pre-installed distros, don’t expect Desktop usage to skyrocket, even if every netbook bought with Linux keeps running it. These custom distros are optimized to fit the hardware exactly, and to make using the netbook easier. Simple as that. The experience they have with Linux on a netbook is not going to be what they get on the desktop. The same kind of users who need to install XP are the same kind of users who need to install a standard Linux distro–they either have specific needs, or just want a standard environment.
Even if a large group of netbook owners have installed Windows on their device, how many actually paid for a new copy of XP rather than just installing one they already had? So Microsoft would not be getting paid for another license but the Linux distro of choice for that device would be. This is the same effect as buying a computer with Windows installed then wiping it out for Linux but never trying to get your money back for your Windows license. I would also like to point out you can find tons of information on and people asking questions about getting Linux installed on their computers that once had windows. Apparently this only adds up to about 4% of the users, maybe it’s the same figure for netbooks.
Ultimately just like in the PC world most systems sold with Windows stay with Windows installed. I’m sure most Linux netbooks sold will always have Linux installed.
thats because people are getting them cheap and installing windows xp on them.. borf.
i didn’t want vista so i bought a crapbuntu dell… used it for a while, realized drivers were an afterthought when my sound stopped working and nobody could fix it….. installed xp and it’s all good.
There is no question that the existence of these devices will increase the market share of Linux – ridiculous to suggest otherwise – but many people will either purchase the models with XP or try to install it afterwards.
Why?
Simple. Linux is different. It is not Windows and people are resistant to change. It really is as simple as that. There will be people who will give Linux a chance and find they like it but at the same time there will be people who will not like it purely because it is different. Fine.
There will be people who give it a chance, discover that Linux is easy to administer and find that even if their favorite software is not available, there are free alternatives that do the same job (sometimes better). There will be people who will refuse to use any alternative to their favorite package and therefore need windows. Fine.
People are resistant to change. My father-in-law is having to completely re-install his XP box. Again. He only needs the pc for browsing, e-mails and to do office tasks for his business. A distro such as PClinuxOS would be perfect for him. Will he give it a try? No. It’s different, too much effort to learn (?), can’t get “Microsoft” on it, etc.
He’s the kind of person that given the choice of what he knows and something different will always choose the familiar. He’s not alone in his attitude and in someways it’s hard to argue with. It’s human nature.
Also, some people will always try to install this piece of software on that piece of hardware for the hell of it or to prove some kind of point.
Linux is making headway, of that there is no question. These devices are exposing more and more people to the platform and it will gain market share – there can be no doubt about this. But many people will want to stick to what they know and are familiar with.
Where things will get interesting is when XP’s life comes to an end early next year. Will Vista be installable on these machines? That is the interesting factor. People like and are familiar with Windows and as Vista gains more and more exposure and people want it on all their platforms (familiarity again) what will they do when it can’t be installed on these inherently less powerful machines.
The long game may favour Linux more than we think.
My tuppence.
specifically, its exsposing the younger ones.
something like the aspire one is perfect for bringing to class and take notes. its so small that it do not hide the user and do not become to much of a burden, yet loaded with enough software to cope with the days tasks.
only problem i can see is that it cant do itunes (even tho most linux media players can handle the ipod).
http://www.desktoplinux.com/articles/AT7150747782.html
http://www.forbes.com/2005/03/28/cx_ah_0328tentech.html
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/03/22/apple_blocks_pymusique/
http://www.pcworld.com/article/120146/pymusique_author_hacks_apples…
… it is an ongoing thing. Information “wants to be free”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_wants_to_be_free
yet these are not itunes.
that brandname is just as important as the features provided.
hell, its a kind of brandname that microsoft never was able to create on the home desktop (but somewhat managed in the office).
edit: what im trying to say is that when you show up at school and unfold the laptop, and itunes is not your default media player, your not part of the “in” kids…
Edited 2008-08-13 14:09 UTC
What world do you live in…? That has to be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.
believe me, the school world can be downright strange…
I think he is trying to say that certain programs/services become so popular they almost become a verb
in the uk ‘to google’ means to search online for something.
you put many people inform of a pc with google.com blocked, they suddenly feel uncomfortable, msn/yahoo isnt QUITE the same. All that user will want is google again!
p.s. since thinking of this anology I have blocked google on a collegues pc and they are indeed pulling their hair out now 😀
Where things will get interesting is when XP’s life comes to an end early next year. Will Vista be installable on these machines?
Microsoft will probably just make an exception for XP on these devices, just like they’re doing now. I don’t think you can truly buy XP on regular PCs now, just can just buy Windows Vista Business with XP Pro Downgrade (as Dell puts it).
Microsoft isn’t stupid. They’ll keep selling XP on these machines until they have something else (PocketVista?) ready. To them, it’s better than people buying them with Linux installed.
Exactly. They’re just steaming through to finish Windows 7 as that O.S. will be easier to run on a netbook (compared to Vista).
Vista is pushing 2 years RTM its hardly a new OS and ignoring all the vapourware nonsense that Windows 7 has the potential to replace. At best it only addresses one humiliation and thats putting an 8 year old OS on the machine is the only way they can compete. It doesn’t address the main reasons Linux is being chosen which is price The only thing they can do is give the OS away, and try to make money on streaming content from a main computer, but there are several companies who are better positioned to do this simply by being content providers. The bottom line is for the social networker on the move why use *any* Microsoft product. I can think of several stable free(as in cost) alternatives for both browser and OS.
People said the same things about XP and the OLPC XO: “Microsoft will never be able to run on that hardware, it’s too big, it costs too much, blah, blah, blah…” Final result? XO is shipping with XP, not Linux. Want to know why? MS reportedly dropped the price tag for XP on the XO down to $3. Never underestimate MS. They still make money, even at that price point, and they have reason to try to prevent Linux from getting a toehold in this market.
There is some truth in what you say, but you’re wrong in one account: The XO is NOT shipping with XP; what has happenned is that now, XP is an option. It’s cost is higher than $3, too, because it absolutely needs to come installed in a sizeable SD card. AND you don’t get standard XP, but a version doctored (butchered?) to run in the limited environment of the XO.
I have not tried XOXP, but I’m sure its performance when running any standard XP package will be far less than stellar. And never forget that most or all of that software that makes XP unsubstitutable costs money, often much more than the XO itself.
So, I’m sure the XOXP is pretty much DOA. It may be initially required by some goverments, but any poor government that is going to shell out for hundreds of thousands of XOXPs will test first, and there is no way XP will pass. A butchered XP that will only be used to slowly run free apps at a higher cost than the alternative is an absurd proposition.
Of course, I hope not, but it may well be that the XO itself is also DOA for many reasons. But if the project wont fly under Linux, don’t believe for a moment that XP will provide the lift.
Precisely so. The whole point of XOXP is to kill the OLPC, not to actually run and do anything useful.
The underpriveledged kids (via their government) would have to spend a great deal extra per machine for a special SD card just so the machines could boot XPXO (a modified Windows of questionable compatibility) slowly so that the kids could then run … Notepad, Calc and Paint. Slowly.
To address this fatal flaw (no actual educational applications) Microsoft seems to be begging to have Sugar (which they originally bagged) ported to XPXO. What in heavens name for? … the XO already runs Sugar just fine without Windows.
Edited 2008-08-14 07:00 UTC
Michael Gartenberg of Jupiter Research apparently disagrees with you. And since, between the two of you, he’s actually been EVALUATING XP on XO, I’m gonna have to go with his opinion…